Week Three College Football Betting Preview: Sharps vs. Squares

Sep 11, 2013

Week Three of the college football season kicks off on Thursday with three games: TCU at Texas Tech, Tulane at Louisiana Tech and Troy at Arkansas State.  While it’s only Tuesday, professional bettors and betting groups alike have already made some major moves that have caught the attention of our handicapping experts.  Please find below Pro Edge’s Week Three college football betting preview: Sharps vs. Squares.

Troy (+7.5) (-110) at Arkansas State

  • This line opened at 10 or 10.5 at most sportsbooks before a widely-respected betting group placed a substantial wager on the road underdog.  With that said, Arkansas State is 11-1 SU and 8-3 ATS at home over the last two seasons;
  • We like the coaching mismatch that this game presents between 24-year coaching veteran Larry Blakeney and first-year coach Bryan Harsin;
  • Both teams possess explosive offenses as Troy is averaging 7.1 yards per play, while Arkansas State is averaging 7.3 yards per play.  The difference could be the Trojans’ ground attack that is averaging 5.4 yards per rush attempt versus an Arkansas State front seven that is yielding nearly 4.0 yards per carry.

Central Florida (+5.5) (-110) at Penn State

  • Central Florida possesses the defense to win this game outright as the Knights are limiting teams to 3.5 points per game this season, including 2.6 yards per rush attempt, 4.9 yards per pass attempt and 211 total yards (3.6 yards per play);
  • Our experts also point to the fact that non-conference road underdogs off a shutout win like UCF are 17-3 ATS since 1980.  And, if you look at the Knights’ last eleven losses, those defeats came by an average margin of just 7 points per game;
  • Central Florida has outscored its first two opponents by a combined 76-7, but the Knights are 0-7 SU and 3-4 ATS versus Big Ten Conference opposition.  Pro Edge Sports really likes UCF to pull the upset Saturday afternoon.

New Mexico State (+6) (-110) over UTEP

  • Pro Edge sources have confirmed that several professional sports bettors have made aggressive moves on New Mexico State at +6.5 (currently +6 at most books). We agree with the move as the home team is 12-4 in this series;
  • Our extensive database shows that New Mexico is 8-0 ATS as an underdog of 12 or fewer points versus teams with losing records, while UTEP has lost eight consecutive games when installed as favorites (a losing skid that dates back to 2011);
  • UTEP is coming off a disheartening overtime loss to New Mexico and will struggle against a veteran Lobo squad that has fourteen starters.  Pro Edge Sports likes the home underdog and agrees with the early move by some respected betting groups.

Based on the existing betting market, Pro Edge likes Troy, Central Florida and New Mexico State as we believe all three underdogs have the ability to win their game outright.  Indeed, our experts have already placed a significant wager on Central Florida at the opening number of +6.