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College Football Betting Preview: Oregon State at Utah

The home team is a perfect 4-0 in this series, and the experts at Pro Edge see no reason why that trend will not continue on Saturday as Utah continues its journey to securing a bowl berth in 2013.  Both teams have solid quarterbacks as Utah sophomore Travis Wilson is averaging 12.0 yards per pass attempt, while Oregon State signal caller Sean Mannion has completed 79% of his passes for 8.8 yards per pass play.  However, the difference will be in Utah’s above-average defense that will ultimately create turnovers and make the necessary stops to win this game.

Week Three College Football Betting Preview: Oregon State at Utah

Fundamental Analysis

  • Oregon State is averaging 2.8 yards per rush attempt, 9.3 yards per pass attempt and 6.9 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 3.6 yards per rush play, 8.8 yards per pass attempt and 6.6 yards per play.  Overall, the Beavers are 0.3 yards per play better than average offensively this season;
  • Utah is averaging 50.0 points per game on 5.9 yards per rush play, 11.4 yards per pass attempt and 8.0 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 5.8 yards per rush play, 10.5 yards per pass attempt and 7.5 yards per play.  Overall, the Utes are 0.5 yards per play better than average offensively in 2013;
  • Oregon State is 0.4 yards per play worse than average defensively (6.7 yards per play to teams that combine to average 6.3 yards per play, whereas the Utes are 0.4 yards per play better than average defensively (4.5 yards per play to teams that combine to average 4.9 yards per play.

Technical Analysis

  • Oregon State is 10-23 ATS in September road games since 1992;
  • Oregon State is 21-37 ATS in the first month of the season since 1992;
  • Oregon State is 7-25-1 ATS in the first four games of the season when getting less than seventeen points per game since 2003;
  • Utah is 34-19 ATS at home after covering the point spread in its previous game;
  • Utah is 18-7 ATS at home after two or more consecutive ATS wins

Situational Analysis

  • After losing to Eastern Washington in week one as 27-point home favorites, the Beavers found themselves tied 14-14 at halftime last week against Hawaii.  Oregon State is known for slow starts under head coach Mike Riley, but one has to wonder if there is more involved in this year’s early-season funk;
  • Utah has looked excellent in both of its wins this season – defeating a very talented Utah State team and eviscerating a Weber State squad 70-7 as 23-point favorites.

Pro Edge Sports math models have Utah favored by seven points in this game, and the Utes also apply to a very good 62-17-3 ATS early-season statistical indicator.  We see no reason to buck the trend mentioned earlier herein as the home team improves to a perfect 5-0 in this series.