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College Football Betting Preview: Fresno State at Colorado

Colorado made one of the best hires during the offseason with head coach Mike MacIntyre, who was successful in turning around a struggling San Jose State program and looks destined to do the same in Boulder, Colorado.  MacIntyre is a perfect 4-0 ATS as a home underdog and has spent the week reminding his players how the Bulldogs humiliated them last year by the tune of 69-14.  Our experts have MacIntyre rated as one of the best head coaches in college football, and he publicly declared during the offseason that the Buffaloes were “one of the most poorly-prepared teams” he had ever seen.

Week Three College Football Betting Preview: Fresno State at Colorado

Fundamental Analysis

  • Fresno State is 0.3 yards per rush play, 0.6 yards per pass attempt and 0.6 yards per play better than average offensively this season;
  • Colorado is averaging 39.5 points per game on 2.9 yards per rush play, 9.0 yards per pass attempt and 6.2 yards per play.  Overall, the Buffaloes are 0.3 yards per play better than average offensively in 2013;
  • Fresno State is 0.5 yards per play worse than average defensively (6.4 yards per play to teams that combine to average 5.9 yards per play, whereas the Buffaloes are 0.6 yards per play better than average defensively (4.3 yards per play to teams that combine to average 4.9 yards per play);
  • Surprisingly, the quarterback position seems to favor Colorado as Connor Wood, a former top10 recruit originally signed by Texas, is averaging 8.1 yards per pass play (68% completion rate).  Fresno State quarterback Derek Carr is averaging just 8.9 yards per completion and 5.4 yards per pass play;
  • Fresno State has far superior special teams.

Technical Analysis

  • Colorado is 8-19 ATS over the last three seasons;
  • Colorado is 2-9 ATS on Saturdays over the last two seasons;
  • Fresno State is 11-2 ATS on Saturdays over the last two seasons;
  • Colorado is 4-21 SU since moving from the Big 12 Conference to the Pac-12 Conference;
  • Undefeated Game Three home underdogs are 19-8-1 ATS versus undefeated opponents that scored more than 30 points in its previous game.

Situational Analysis

  • The schedule strongly favors Colorado as the Buffaloes have a bye on deck, whereas Fresno State has a huge home game against Boise State waiting in the wings;
  • Despite being 2-0, Fresno State has been outgained in each of its first two games this season.

Pro Edge Sports math models favor Fresno State by six points in this game, and Colorado applies to a very good 43-7-1 ATS home underdog situation.  As stated above, our experts really like coach MacIntyre and believe he has this program heading in the right direction.