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Week Ten NFL Betting Preview & Pick: Kansas City at Buffalo

NFL: Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions

Buffalo seems to be a different team with Kyle Orton under center as the Bills have won three of his last first four starts to improve to 5-3 on the season.  “I don’t know yet because it’s still such a young season, but I think it’s very promising the way he’s prepared himself, the way he’s handled himself,” offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett said of Orton.  Rookie wide receiver Sammy Watkins has also been impressed with what Orton has brought to the field.  “He’s a leader,” Watkins said. “He makes the passes that he needs to make.  He knows how to help us out on the field, put us in different areas.  That’s what we need, a veteran quarterback.”

Buffalo’s success has been predicated upon a very good defense that is allowing 20.6 points per game on 325 yards at 5.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yards per play against mediocre defensive squads.  Overall, Buffalo is 0.6 yards per rush play, 0.4 yards per pass play and 0.4 yards per play better than average defensively, which is certainly good enough to slow down a mediocre Kansas City attack (5.5 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yards per play).

Buffalo Defense vs. Kansas City Offense:

  • +0.3 yards per rush play advantage
  • +0.3 yards per pass play advantage
  • +0.4 yards per play advantage overall from line of scrimmage

Neither team will have much success moving the ball as the Bills’ attack is 0.2 yards per play worse than average (5.4 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yards per play), which isn’t good enough to exploit a mediocre Kansas City stop unit (5.6 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yards per play).  However, Kansas City’s defense has struggled on the road this season where the Chiefs are yielding 4.9 yards per rush attempt and 5.7 yards per play, both of which are significantly worse than their season averages.

I also like the way Buffalo’s offense is operating with Orton behind center as the Bills are averaging 27.3 points over the last three games at 7.5 yards per pass play, 5.7 yards per play and 12.1 yards per point.  There is no questions that Buffalo is a much better team with Orton guiding the offense, and I expect that success to continue Sunday afternoon against a grossly overrated Kansas City stop unit.

From a technical standpoint, Buffalo is 8-2 SU and ATS at home versus non-division opponents when playing with rest, 6-1 ATS in this series and 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven meetings at home against the Chiefs.  This also seems to be the sweet spot of the regular season for the Bills as they are a profitable 24-10 ATS at home in weeks 10 through 13.  With Andy Reid standing at 1-4-1 SU and 1-5 ATS versus rested opponents in his NFL career, grab the point(s) with Buffalo and invest with confidence.  We hope you enjoyed this NFL betting preview!

 NFL Betting Preview & Pick: Buffalo Bills (+1) (-110)

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