This game involves two teams heading in opposite directions as Miami takes the field having won and covered two straight, whereas the Chargers arrive in town off consecutive losses. The issue for San Diego has been a porous defense that has allowed 28.7 points over the last three games at 4.6 yards per rush play, 8.0 yards per pass play and 6.4 yards per play. The Chargers are also yielding 22.7 points per game and 379 total yards at 4.6 yards per rush play, 7.3 yards per pass play and 6.2 yards per play on the road this season.
Overall, San Diego is 0.3 yards per rush attempt, 0.1 yards per pass attempt and 0.2 yards per play worse than average defensively, which gives the Dolphins an advantage on the offensive side of the ball. Miami is averaging 24.9 points per game at 5.0 yards per rush play and 5.6 yards per play this season against teams that would combine to allow 4.2 yards per rush attempt and 5.7 yards per play to mediocre offensive squads. The biggest mismatch in this game is Miami’s ground game, which is 0.8 yards per rush play better than average, against the Charger’s weak front seven that is 0.3 yards per rush play worse than average.
Overall, the Dolphins possess a significant 1.1 yards per rush attempt advantage over San Diego’s run defense. I also like the fact that Miami’s offense has looked very good over the last three games wherein the Dolphins are averaging 26.0 points at 5.0 yards per rush attempt, 7.3 yards per pass attempt, 6.2 yards per play and 13.7 yards per point. Miami also possesses a very good defense that is 0.6 yards per play better than average (5.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yards per play). However, the key to this game will be Miami’s outstanding secondary, which is 0.9 yards per pass play better than average, against San Diego’s one-dimensional offense.
San Diego cannot run the ball as the Chargers are 0.6 yards per rush play worse than average, but Philip Rivers is certainly capable of throwing the ball downfield. The Chargers are 1.1 yards per pass play better than average (7.9 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.8 yards per pass play), which gives San Diego a nominal 0.2 yards per pass attempt advantage through the air. However, the fact that San Diego has no run game will allow the Dolphins to drop an extra player back into pass coverage. Overall, San Diego is 0.2 yards per play better than average offensively (5.7 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yards per play), which gives the Dolphins a solid 0.4 yards per play advantage defensively from the line of scrimmage.
My math model favors Miami by five points and the Dolphins apply to a very good 54-17-1 ATS home momentum situation of mine that invests on certain home teams off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. Let’s also note that Miami is 5-2 ATS at home off a win, whereas road underdogs off a Thursday night game are a money-burning 3-9 ATS. Take Miami and invest with confidence.
NFL Betting Preview & Best Bet: Miami Dolphins (-1.5) (-110)