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Week 8 College Football Betting Preview & Sharp Money Report


Clemson at Boston College (+5.5) (-110)

Boston College’s success is predicated upon an outstanding ground game that is averaging 316 yards at 5.9 yards per carry against teams that would combine to allow just 4.9 yards per rush play to a mediocre backfield.  Overall, Boston College is 0.3 yards per play better than average offensively (6.0 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yards per play), but the Eagles’ attack has been potent at home where they are averaging 6.2 yards per rush attempt and 435 total yards per game at 6.2 yards per play.

Clemson takes the field with a very good run defense that is 1.1 yards per rush play better than average (3.0 yards per play to teams that combine to average 4.1 yards per play), which makes both of these teams relatively even from the line of scrimmage when the Eagles have the ball.  Overall, Clemson is allowing 4.4 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yards per play, which gives the Tigers a decent 0.6 yards per play advantage defensively over Boston College’s attack. However, the concern for Clemson backers is the fact that the Tigers have given up 34.0 points per game on the road at 5.0 yards per rush play, 6.7 yards per pass play, 5.8 yards per play and 11.4 yards per point.

Boston College also possesses a very good defense that is 0.8 yards per rush play, 0.9 yards per pass play and 0.8 yards per play better than average this season. Meanwhile, Clemson arrives in town with an overrated offense that is actually 0.1 yards per play worse than average (5.6 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yards per play).  Moreover, the Tigers’ offense has stalled on the road this season where they are averaging just 19.0 points per game at 4.7 yards per play and 18.4 yards per point.

More importantly, Clemson will be without injured starting quarterback Deshaun Watson, who is averaging 9.3 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow just 6.7 yards per pass play to a mediocre quarterback.  Backup quarterback Cole Stoudt, who actually started at the beginning of the year, is a significant downgrade for the Tigers’ offense as he is just 0.1 yards per pass play better than average this season.  Overall, Boston College owns a solid 0.9 yards per play advantage defensively over the Tigers’ pedestrian attack.

Boston College head coach Steve Addazio was an excellent hire by the Eagles, and he has done a terrific job with the program since arriving in Chestnut Hill.  In fact, Addazio is 7-3 SU and 6-2 ATS at home over the last two seasons, including wins over Virginia Tech (last year) and USC (this year).  Boston College is also playing with legitimate revenge after suffering a 24-14 loss at Clemson last year, which is significant in that the Eagles are a perfect 6-0 ATS with revenge.  Finally, Boston College is 10-4 ATS in its last fourteen home games, 7-3 ATS in its last ten conference games and 5-0 ATS in its last five games at home versus teams with a winning road record, whereas the Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five October games.  Grab the points with the Eagles and invest with confidence.

Sharp Money Report:

Professional sports bettors and respected betting syndicates have made significant moves on several of Saturday’s college football games, including the following:

  • West Virginia (+9.5 to +7.5)
  • Massachusetts (-12.5 to -14,5)
  • Florida (-4.5 to -6)
  • Hawaii (+7.5 to +9.5)
  • Syracuse (-3.5 to -6)
  • Kansas State (+9.5 to +7)
  • Virginia (+3.5 to +1.5)

Sharp money has also come in on Pittsburgh, Houston, Miami Ohio, Western Michigan, Alabama and Nevada.  I hope you enjoyed this week’s betting report.