NCAA Football Point Spread Value Plays

Oct 4, 2013

The experts at Pro Edge Sports Picks have isolated a few games on Saturday that feature teams that are undervalued by the oddsmakers.  Please find below our week six NCAA Football point spread value plays:

Indiana (+3.5) (-110) over Penn State

  • Penn State is 1-14 ATS in its first conference game of the season, including 0-11 ATS following a win;
  • Indiana maintains a +0.7 yards per pass attempt and +0.5 yards per play advantage offensively over the Nittany Lion’s stop unit.

Illinois (+9) (-110) over Nebraska

  • It could feasibly be argued that the wrong team is favored as Nebraska is allowing 27.0 points per game this season on 4.9 yards per rush play, 8.4 yards per pass attempt and 6.6 yards per play;
  • Illinois possesses a huge +0.8 yards per rush play,  +2.7 yards per pass attempt and +1.7 yards per play advantage offensively over the Cornhusker’s stop unit.

TCU (+8.5) (-110) over Oklahoma

  • Strong technical analysis favoring TCU as teams coming off a win over Notre Dame are just 29-45-3 ATS as favorites in their next game, including 19-34-1 ATS versus an opponent with a win percentage of .400 or greater.  TCU is 7-2 ATS with conference revenge, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS as an underdog with revenge;
  • TCU’s defense is 1.0 yards per play better than average in 2013, which gives the Horned Frogs a +0.3 yards per play advantage over Oklahoma’s offense.

Missouri (-1) (-110) over Vanderbilt

  • Missouri head coach Gary Pinkel is 41-8-1 SU in games where his team is undefeated and the opponent is not.  Vanderbilt is 1-12 SU and 2-11 ATS in Game Six of the regular season;
  • Missouri has a +0.5 yards per play advantage defensively over the Commodores’ offense and a +0.3 yards per play advantage offensively over Vanderbilt’s stop unit.

The above-referenced games all have one thing in common – they are badly undervalued by the oddsmakers and are primed to be exploited by savvy sports bettors.  With that said, the sharps have already bet several of these games, thereby extracting most of the line value from the current point spreads.  Pro Edge clients receive selections days in advance in order to beat the market – join today and start experiencing how it feels to win with a proven, reputable and respected sports handicapping service.