Week 18 NFL Betting Preview & Free Picks for Saturday

Jan 5, 2024

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Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Week 18 NFL betting preview and free picks report for Saturday, January 6!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Saturday’s games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

Houston Texans (-1) (-110) at Indianapolis Colts 

Report: Since 2000, NFL home underdogs on short rest are 112-143-10 ATS (43.9%), including 45-63-3 ATS (41.7%) since 2016. Since 1989, NFL division favorites coming off a division game are 98-69-4 ATS (58.7%) in games with totals of greater than 45 points from Week 8 out, including 46-21-1 ATS (68.7%) since 2015, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -4.92 points per game. Since 2011, NFL teams in games with totals of greater than 45 points are 110-90-9 ATS (55%) if the average total in their previous three games is 42.5 points or less.

However, Indianapolis is 17-1 SU and ATS since December 18, 2008, versus divisional opponents that didn’t commit a turnover in their previous game, covering the spread by an average margin of +8.2 points per game.  Since 2013, NFL rookie quarterbacks 105-130 ATS (44.7%) in road/neutral games, including 32-95 SU and 52-73-2 ATS (41.6%) from Week 10 out.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts UNDER 47.5 points

Report: Since 1995, divisional games with totals of greater than 45 points are 488-382 to the Under (56.1%). Since 2019, late afternoon or evening NFL games are 166-123-7 to the Under (57.4%), including 71-49-1 UNDER (59.2%) since the beginning of the 2022-23 season. Since 2021, NFL road favorites are 178-120-5 to the Under (59.7%), including 118-72 UNDER (62.1%) since the beginning of the 2022-23 season. Since 2021, NFL road favorites of less than seven points coming off a win are 73-49-2 to the Under (59.8%), including 54-29-2 UNDER (65.1%) since the beginning of the 2022-23 season.

Since 2006, NFL teams coming off a win that have increased their offensive production in four consecutive games are 109-83 to the Under (56.8%). Finally, AFC teams (excluding West Division) coming off a home game against the Raiders are 28-17-1 to the Under (62.2%) since 2009, including 16-1-1 UNDER since December 14, 2017.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) (-115)

Report: Since 2011, NFL underdogs in the games where teams are resting starters are 22-9 ATS (71%). Since 2011, teams resting starters are 19-12-2 ATS (61.3%) in the final two weeks of the regular season. NFL teams that lost the previous game to an opponent but now have a record 20% or better are 41-14 SU and 35-20 ATS (63.6%) in the rematch. Since 2012, AFC North divisional underdogs are 70-49-3 ATS (58.5%), including 23-12 ATS (65.7%) over the last three seasons. Since 2018, NFL underdogs in games with totals of less than 42 points are 175-138-14 ATS (55.9%), including 53-39-7 ATS (57.6%) this season.

Since 1998, .501 or greater teams with a negative point differential are 100-142-8 ATS (41.3%) from November out. Since 2009, NFL road teams on short rest are 34-47-2 ATS (42%) following a road game, including 9-16-1 ATS (36%) since 2020, failing to cover the spread by an average of -6.02 points per game. Since 2002, NFL road teams on short rest are 31-72 SU (30%) following an upset win as underdogs. Baltimore and Pittsburgh have played seventeen games against one another since 2015. Fourteen of those contests have been decided by one possession.

Baltimore is 24-7 ATS as an underdog since 2017, while the Steelers are 17-27 ATS as favorites since 2018. In games between Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh, the underdog is 23-5-3 ATS (82.1%). Tomlin is 5-12-1 ATS as a favorite versus Harbaugh. Tomlin is 31-40-2 ATS as a road favorite in his career, including 9-12-1 ATS since 2017. Finally, Harbaugh is 55-34-3 ATS as an underdog in his career, which is the second-best record of any coach in the NFL over the last 20 years.

Oskeim Sports gives free NFL Picks and NFL Predictions throughout the 2023-24 NFL season. Oskeim Sports has been an industry-leading sports handicapping service since 2007. Its lead handicapper, Jeff Keim, has received 73 awards in football, basketball, baseball and hockey, including 15 handicapping championships and 53 Top 5 finishes. Visit daily for free NFL odds, totals and free picks.

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