Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Week 15 NFL betting preview and free picks report for Sunday, December 17! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Chicago Bears (+3) (-110) at Cleveland Browns
Report: Since 1991, NFL road underdogs of less than seven points that won fewer than five games the previous season are 291-186-11 ATS (61%), including 69-32-4 ATS (68.3%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.42 points per game. Since 2009, NFL road underdogs of four points or less coming off a home game that went under the total are 189-137-8 ATS (58%), including 48-30 ATS (61.5%) since 2021. Since 2018, NFL underdogs in games with totals of less than 42 points are 163-129-11 ATS (55.8%), including 41-30-4 ATS (57.7%) this season.
Since 2004, NFL road underdogs of 3-7 points are 173-127-11 ATS (57.7%) versus teams coming off a game in which they committed three or more turnovers, including 36-21-3 ATS (63.2%) since 2018. Since 1997, NFL teams coming off a game in which they scored 28 or more points are 152-93-9 ATS (62%) provided they didn’t win by ten or more points. Cleveland is 29-39 ATS (42.6%) at home since 2015 and 17-28 ATS (37.8%) as a favorite since 2017. The Browns will be starting a backup quarterback for the 58th time in the last ten years, going 20-38 SU and 27-30-1 ATS in those contests.
However, the Bears are 24-40 ATS (37.5%) in road/neutral games since 2016 and 22-35 ATS (38.6%) as underdogs since 2019. Since the start of last season, the Bears are 8-22 SU, including 4-19 SU in afternoon affairs. Chicago is 67-83-4 ATS (43.5%) following a win over the last 20 years, including 31-47-1 ATS as an underdog. Chicago quarterback Justin Fields is 8-26 SU and 12-21-1 ATS in his NFL career.
Chicago is 2-13 SU in its last 15 road games, including losing 9 of its last 10 away from home. Let’s also note that the home team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings in this series. Finally, Cleveland has only allowed 183 first downs this season, the fewest of any defense since the 2008 Baltimore Ravens.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals UNDER 48 points
Report: Since 2002, NFL divisional games with totals of 45 points or greater are 362-238 to the Under (60.3%) in Weeks 11-16 of the regular season, covering the total by an average margin of -2.8 points per game. Since 2013, teams averaging 6.0 or more yards per play are 427-321-20 to the Under (57.1%), including 104-77-4 UNDER (57.5%) since 2021. Since 2010, NFL road favorites of seven or more points with a better yards per play average and a better third down conversion percentage are 102-70-4 to the Under (59.3%).
Since 1990, double-digit divisional favorites are 173-128-6 to the Under (57.5%) from Week 9 out. NFL road favorites are 172-112-5 to the Under (60.6%) since 2021, including 112-64-4 UNDER (63.6%) since the beginning of the 2022-23 season. Since 2008, NFL games with double-digit road favorites are 58-37-1 to the Under (61.1%), covering the total by an average of -2.0 points per game. Since 1999, NFL road favorites of -9.5 and -14.5 points are 86-65-3 to the Under (57%), including 40-25-2 UNDER (61.5%) since 2015.
Since 2009, NFL home underdogs of eight or more points are 83-56-2 to the Under (59.7%). Since 2008, divisional home underdogs with revenge for a road loss are 165-132-7 to the Under (55.6%), including 30-15 UNDER (66.7%) since 2021. Finally, the Cardinals are 6-2 to the Under in their last eight post-bye week games versus divisional opponents, while the under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Arizona.
Washington Commanders (+6.5) (-110) at Los Angeles Rams
Report: Since 2005, NFL underdogs of at least three points coming off a loss by 20 or more points are 281-210-11 ATS (57.2%), including 40-29-1 ATS (58%) since 2021. Since 1989, NFL road underdogs of less than seven points coming off a home loss in which they allowed 40 or more points are 52-28-2 ATS (65%), including 22-8 ATS (73.3%) since 2015, covering the spread by an average of +4.7 points per game. Since 1996, non-divisional road underdogs of +3 to +6.5 points coming off a game as home underdogs in which they failed to cover the spread by two or more points are 71-52-3 ATS (57.7%), including 24-3-1 ATS since 2018, exceeding market expectations by an average of +4.11 points per game.
Since 1989, NFL teams on a four-plus game losing streak coming off a regular season bye are 54-33-2 ATS (62.1%). Since 2014, NFL home favorites coming off a loss are 151-213-8 ATS (41.5%) versus opponents that aren’t on extended losing streaks, including 59-90-1 (39.6%) since 2020. Since 2005, NFL teams coming off an overtime loss by a touchdown are 32-41-1 ATS (43.8%) in their next game. Washington head coach Ron Rivera is 61-45-3 ATS as an underdog, including 24-16-2 ATS versus divisional opponents and 13-7-1 ATS with extended rest.
NFL teams that see the line move three points or more away from them are just 132-166-4 ATS since 2020 and 75-102-3 ATS since the start of last season. However, the Commanders are 4-11 SU and 2-13 ATS in their last fifteen post-bye-week games, including 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five post-bye-week road games, losing by an average of 15.4 points per game.
NFL Betting Trends for Sunday, December 17
- Since 1990, NFL teams coming off a game in which they failed to cover the spread by 27 or more points per game are 223-154-12 ATS (59.2%), including 54-32-3 ATS (62.8%) since 2016
- Since 2014, NFL home underdogs of fewer than four points in games with totals of 45 points or less are 147-101-7 to the Under (59.3%), including 74-26-2 UNDER (74%) since 2020, covering the total by an average margin of -3.6 points per game
- Since 2002, NFL divisional games with totals of 45 points or greater are 362-238 to the Under (60.3%) in Weeks 11-16 of the regular season, covering the total by an average margin of -2.8 points per game
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