Week 15 NFL Betting Preview & Free Picks for Saturday

Dec 15, 2023

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Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Week 15 NFL betting preview and free picks report for Saturday, December 16!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Saturday’s games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

Minnesota Vikings (+3) (-110) at Cincinnati Bengals

Report: Since 1990, NFL underdogs of seven points or less that have scored fewer than four combined touchdowns in their last three games are 138-93-12 ATS (59.7%) in contests with totals of less than 45 points, including 35-12-1 ATS (74.5%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average margin of +6.6 points per game. Since 2000, NFL teams coming off a game in which they scored three points or less are 204-161-6 ATS (55.9%) in their next game, including 59-38-1 ATS (60.8%) since 2016. Since 2002, NFL underdogs coming off a game in which they scored three points or less are 135-98-3 ATS (57.9%), including 23-12 ATS (65.7%) since 2020, covering the spread by an average of +2.34 points per game.

Since 1989, NFL teams coming off a win in which they scored fewer than twelve points are 93-67-4 ATS (58.1%), including 12-7 ATS (63.2%) since 2016. Since 2018, NFL underdogs in games with totals of less than 42 points are 163-129-11 ATS (55.8%), including 41-30-4 ATS (57.7%) this season. Since 2001, .501 or greater teams with a negative average point differential in November or later are 146-177-13 ATS (45.2%). Finally, the Vikings are 29-16 ATS (64.4%) versus non-conference opponents since 2014.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts UNDER 42.5 points

Report: Since 2019, late afternoon or evening NFL games are 163-112-7 to the Under (59.3%), including 68-38-1 UNDER (64.2%) since the beginning of the 2022-23 season, covering the total by an average margin of -2.5 points per game. Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is 81-59-1 to the Under (58%) in road affairs, including 56-25-1 UNDER (69%) in the last decade. The Steelers are 31-7 to the Under (81.6%) on the road versus teams averaging 35 or more pass attempts per game since 2014. The Steelers are 33-6 to the Under (84.6%) since 2014 away from home versus opponents averaging more than 35.5 passes per game and fewer than 2.2 turnovers per game, covering the total by an average of -5.21 points per game.

The Steelers are 22-1 to the Under (95.7%) since 2014 as road favorites of thirteen points or less versus teams averaging more than 34.5 passes per game and 1.9 or more sacks per game. Finally, the Steelers are 91-58 to the Under (61.1%) since 2019. Take the under as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, December 16.

NFL Betting Trends for Saturday, December 16

  • Since 1994, NFL underdogs with short rest coming off an upset win as underdogs are 60-82-3 ATS (42.3%), including 17-32 ATS (34.7%) since 2016
  • NFL teams coming off a road game in Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New Orleans or New York are 100-139-7 ATS (41.8%) over the last five years
  • Detroit quarterback Jared Goff is 28-14 ATS under head coach Dan Campbell, including 15-8 ATS following a loss and 11-4 ATS at home off a loss
  • Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin is 36-20-2 ATS as an underdog versus .501 or greater opponents, including 26-14-2 ATS versus AFC foes
  • Pittsburgh is 46-22-2 ATS as an underdog from Week 5 forward under coach Tomlin, including 38-32 straight-up
  • Pittsburgh quarterback Mitch Trubisky is 31-27 SU and 27-28-3 ATS in his career, including 2-4 SU and 2-3-1 ATS with the Steelers
  • Indianapolis quarterback Gardner Minshew is 6-14 SU and 8-12 ATS in the last 20 starts.  Minshew is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS since 2020 versus teams on short rest
  • Since the start of last season, backup quarterbacks are 68-94 straight-up, but 88-69-5 ATS
  • NFL teams coming off a road game against the Raiders in Las Vegas are 10-20 ATS since 2020
  • Before this season, the Vikings were 34-16-1 to the Over from 2020 to 2022.  This season, the Vikings are 10-3 to the Under.  Since Week 8, Minnesota’s offense is 24th in EPA/play and 29th in rush EPA/play.

Oskeim Sports gives free NFL Picks and NFL Predictions throughout the 2023-24 NFL season. Oskeim Sports has been an industry-leading sports handicapping service since 2007. Its lead handicapper, Jeff Keim, has received 73 awards in football, basketball, baseball and hockey, including 15 handicapping championships and 53 Top 5 finishes. Visit daily for free NFL odds, totals and free picks.

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