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College Football Betting Preview: Mississippi St. at Alabama

alabama

The coaching mismatch in this game is significant as Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen is 8-24 SU and 13-19 ATS versus .750 or greater opposition, including 1-14 SU and 6-9 ATS from Game Seven out.  In contrast, Alabama head coach Nick Saban is 30-13 SU and 24-16 ATS versus undefeated opponents in his coaching career, including 21-3 SU and 15-8 ATS when his team owns a win percentage of .888 or greater.  Saban is also 21-4 SU and 15-9 ATS versus undefeated foes during his tenure in Tuscaloosa, including 16-2 SU and 13-4 ATS if the opponent scored less than 46 points in its previous game.

From a fundamental standpoint, there is no question that Alabama is the better team.  The Crimson Tide are averaging 34.7 points per game at 6.6 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.5 yards per play to a mediocre offensive squad.  More importantly, the Tide are a perfect 4-0 at home this season where they are averaging 48.5 points per game at 7.8 yards per play and 12.4 yards per point.

Overall, Alabama is 0.5 yards per rush play, 2.0 yards per pass play and 1.1 yards per play better than average offensively, which is good enough to move the chains against a Mississippi State defense that is 0.3 yards per play better than average (5.4 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.47 yards per play).

Alabama Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense:

  • -0.5 yards per rush play disadvantage
  • +1.6 yards per pass play advantage
  • +0.8 yards per play advantage overall from line of scrimmage

Everyone knows that Mississippi State possesses a very good offense that is 1.0 yards per play better than average (7.0 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yards per play), but that is still not good enough to move the ball at a healthy clip against a stout Alabama defense.  Indeed, the Tide are allowing a mere 13.9 points per game this season at 4.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yards per play.

Even more impressive is the fact that the Tide are limiting opponents to just 8.2 points per game on 195 total yards at 3.7 yards per play at home this season!  Overall, Alabama is 1.3 yards per play better than average defensively, which gives the Tide a 0.3 yards per play advantage over Mississippi’s attack.

Alabama Defense vs. Mississippi State Offense:

  • +0.8 yards per rush play advantage
  • -0.2 yards per pass play disadvantage
  • +0.3 yards per play advantage overall from line of scrimmage

The road has been a difficult venue for undefeated college football teams at this juncture of the season as these squads are just 59-73-2 ATS from Game Ten out, including 23-34 ATS versus .666 or greater opposition.  Meanwhile, Alabama is a perfect 6-0 ATS at home against conference opponents over the last two seasons, while Nick Saban is a perfect 5-0 ATS versus the Bulldogs with coach Mullen on the sidelines (each win coming by double-digits).

In fact, the Tide have won six straight in this series by an average margin of 22 points per game.  With the series host standing at 4-0 ATS, take Alabama and invest with confidence.  We hope you enjoyed this betting preview!

Betting Preview & Pick: Alabama (-8) (-110)

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