Wednesday’s Free Sports Pick from Pro Edge: St. Louis at Miami

Aug 13, 2014

St. Louis right-hander Justin Masterson’s nightmare has continued despite new scenery as he has allowed five runs, seven hits and issued three walks in each of his first two starts for the Cardinals. “This is not the best thing you want to do when you come to a new team,” said Masterson, who went 4-6 with a 5.51 ERA in 19 starts for the Indians. “It’s really just a lot of minor things. It just needs to click that little bit. A lack of location and the sinker flattening out.”

Overall, Masterson is 5-7 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 2014, including going 1-5 with a 7.43 ERA and 1.93 WHIP on the road, 3-6 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.69 WHIP at night and 1-2 with a 13.50 ERA and 2.90 WHIP over his last three outings.  The 29-year-old has walked at least two batters in 14 straight outings, and in five of his last seven, he’s given up five earned runs.  Masterson’s underlying metrics have also continued decline:

Justin Masterson’s Advanced Metrics:

  • 4.14 xFIP & 4.11 SIERA in 2014
  • 4.57 xFIP & 5.21 FIP on the road
  • 5.14 xFIP & 6.73 FIP in July
  • 5.42 xFIP & 7.88 FIP in August

In contrast, Miami starter Nathan Eovaldi toes the rubber in excellent form with a 2.66 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over his last three outings.  “He’s been really good,” manager Mike Redmond said.  “His last two starts, his fastball command has been better.  Sometimes guys go through little spurts where they struggle and try to find it.  That happens with a lot of pitchers, not just young guys, but veterans as well.  The key is how fast you can get it back.”  Redmond’s praise of Eovaldi continued: “This is coming at a perfect time for him to get locked in over the last six weeks, and however many starts he has left.”

Eovaldi is also supported by a very good Miami bullpen that owns a 3.45 ERA and 1.36 WHIP this season, including a 3.09 ERA and 1.40 WHIP at home and a 3.20 ERA and 1.31 WHIP at night.  Pro Edge Sports also likes Eovaldi’s underlying metrics:

Nathan Eovaldi’s Advanced Metrics:

  • 3.66 xFIP and 3.38 FIP at home
  • 3.22 xFIP and 2.13 FIP in August

Pro Edge Sports likes the atmosphere in Miami’s locker room as players are talking about the playoffs for the first time in many years.  Having won four of their last five games, our experts have no hesitation in making the Marlins their free sports pick for Wednesday.

Free Sports Pick: Miami Marlins 

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