Variance in College Football: 2014 Expectations

Jul 15, 2014

We have frequently stated that fumbles are 90% random in football, and that variance is an inherent part of sports betting.  As we approach the 2014-2015 College Football season, the experts at Pro Edge Sports wanted to highlight those teams that were the beneficiaries of positive variance, while also divulging the squads that suffered from extreme negative variance.  Please find below the teams that experienced the worst luck from a turnover standpoint:

2013-2014 College Football Teams: Negative Variance

  1. Souther Mississippi: -19 turnover ratio
  2. California: -15 turnover ratio
  3. Texas Tech: -14 turnover ratio
  4. Eastern Michigan: -12 turnover ratio
  5. Rutgers: -12 turnover ratio
  6. Nebraska: -11 turnover ratio
  7. San Diego State: -11 turnover ratio
  8. Hawaii: -10 turnover ratio
  9. Illinois: -10 turnover ratio
  10. Tulsa: -10 turnover ratio
  11. Western Kentucky: -10 turnover ratio

As our colleague Phil Steele writes in his 2014 College Preview Magazine, the vast majority of college football teams that suffer from extreme bad luck the previous season enjoy far better results the following year.  Indeed, since 1991, teams with a negative double-digit turnover ratio had the same or stronger records 80% of the time the following season. See Phil Steele’s 2014 College Football Preview Magazine.  Please find below the college football teams that experienced the greatest amount of luck from a turnover standpoint:

2013-2014 College Football Teams: Positive Variance

  1. Houston: +25 turnover ratio
  2. Florida State: +17 turnover ratio
  3. Louisville: +17 turnover ratio
  4. Missouri: +16 turnover ratio
  5. Arizona State: +15 turnover ratio
  6. Buffalo: +15 turnover ratio
  7. Oklahoma State: +15 turnover ratio
  8. Baylor: +13 turnover ratio
  9. Michigan State: +13 turnover ratio
  10. Northern Illinois: +13 turnover ratio
  11. South Carolina: +13 turnover ratio
  12. Ball State: +12 turnover ratio
  13. Middle Tennessee State: +12 turnover ratio
  14. Navy: +12 turnover ratio
  15. North Texas: +11 turnover ratio
  16. Oregon: +11 turnover ratio
  17. Tulane: +11 turnover ratio
  18. Utah State: +11 turnover ratio

Since 1991, teams with a positive double-digit turnover ratio had the same or weaker record 76% of the time in the following season.  See Phil Steele’s 2014 College Football Preview Magazine.  Successful sports bettors understand and appreciate the fact that variance, whether positive or negative, is an inherent part of sports investing.

While sports bettors can’t control interceptions, fumbles or missed field goals, they can put themselves on the right side of a game through detailed research and analysis.  While information and statistics are readily available in the internet, the key to succeeding as a sports bettor is knowing how to utilize that information.  Hiring a professional sports advisory firm like Pro Edge Sports allows sports bettors the opportunity to generate a solid return on investment, while also learning how to become a successful bettor over the long-term.