Unique NBA Playoff Trend Can Save the Warriors

Apr 20, 2023

nba playoff trend, nba playoff picks, nba playoff bets

The Golden State Warriors have experienced it all over the past ten years. They have won  championships and they have lost NBA Finals. They have even missed the playoffs entirely, but their current situation is a first for them.

The Warriors are down 0-2 in a series for the first time in 11 seasons after suffering back-to-back losses to the Sacramento Kings in the first two games of their opening round playoff series. Even under the previous head coach Mark Jackson, the Warriors had never lost their first two games of a series, so this is truly uncharted territory for them.

It’s a new challenge for the defending NBA champions. It will be even more challenging as the series now shifts to San Francisco. The Warriors will play at home in the Chase Center, but they will do so without Draymond Green, at least for Game 3.

Green was ejected from Tuesday night’s loss to the Kings for stomping on Domantas Sabonis. After the league reviewed the incident, the NBA handed down a one-game suspension for Green, who will miss Game 3.

At least Golden State gets to face the challenge in its home arena. The Warriors have a history of playing well at home and they finished the regular season with one of the best home records (33-8) in the league. Still, they trail in this series down 2-0. What does history tell us about this matchup?

First off, it’s not surprising that the Warriors lost the first two games of the series. Sacramento is the higher seed and won both games on its home floor. The Kings are one of the biggest longshots (+2200) to win an NBA title seeded in the top-3 in the last 40-plus years. And, you can add in this. The Warriors were awful on the road this season. In fact, Golden State has the worst road record (11-30) among all 16 playoff teams.

Heading into tonight’s game, the Warriors are favored to win. That’s no surprise either since it is Golden State and they are at home. Historically, home favorites down 0-2 in a series are 50-26 SU and 41-32-3 ATS. That’s not the only trend.

Typically, a team down 0-2 returning home is jacked up in front of their home crowd knowing they need a win to avoid going down 0-3. Not many teams come back from a three-game deficit in the NBA. Where you really see it is in the first half.

Home teams trailing 0-2 in a series usually come out firing in the first half of Game 3. The results are this – 50-24-1 against the first half spread. The Warriors have never been in this situation before, so there is no guarantee that they will beat the first half spread, win the game, or cover the game spread. However, the Warriors have performed well after a playoff loss.

Since Steve Kerr took over as head coach, Golden State is 22-14 ATS following a postseason loss. As you look to bet Game 3 of this series, this is definitely a trend worth considering.

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