Two Unlikely Success Stories Face Off in Oakland

Jul 5, 2014

Toronto veteran Mark Buehrle is the first half of the unlikely success stories toeing the rubber this afternoon as the 35-year-old is 10-5 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season.  Buehrle is also 5-2 with a 2.11 ERA and 1.04 WHIP on the road and 6-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.34 WHIP at night. Buehrle is 8-13 with a 3.63 ERA lifetime versus the Athletics, but he has won his last four starts against them behind a 3.16 ERA.  Coco Crisp and Alberto Callaspo are both 3-for-21 against Buehrle since 2009.

Mark Buehrle’s Metrics:

  • 4.17 xFIP
  • 4.42 SIERA
  • 3.82 xFIP on the road
  • 4.27 xFIP in June

The other half of the unlikely success stories facing off tonight is Oakland southpaw Scott Kazmir, who is 9-3 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 2014.  Kazmir is at his best at home where he is 5-1 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.77 WHIP.  Kazmir, who was tagged for a season-high seven runs over three innings in a 10-1 road loss to the New York Mets in his previous start June 24, has surrendered two runs or fewer in six of his last seven.

Scott Kazmir’s Metrics:

  • 3.45 xFIP
  • 3.36 SIERA
  • 3.46 xFIP at home
  • 3.09 xFIP in June

The difference in this game could come down to the team’s respective bullpen’s as Oakland possesses a significant advantage in this category.  Specifically, Oakland’s bullpen owns a 2.96 ERA and 1.10 WHIP this season, including a 2.93 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at night and a 3.00 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last seven games.  In contrast, Toronto relievers own a pedestrian 4.36 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 2014, including a 4.71 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the road and a 4.61 ERA and 1.47 WHIP at night.

The Blue Jays have also been mired in a slump as they are batting just .227 with a .287 on base percentage over the last ten days (2.7 runs per game).  Toronto’s bats have also struggled on the road where they are batting .249 with a .322 on base percentage (4.3 runs per game).  Meanwhile, Oakland is 19-8 versus southpaws this season against whom they are averaging 5.3 runs per game.

From a technical standpoint, Oakland is a profitable 37-14 (+19.4 units) with a money line of -150 or less, 47-20 (+18.0 units) as favorites, 98-48 (+25.0 units) as home favorites and 36-17 (+19.0 units) in July.  With Kazmir on the mound, his team’s are 24-6 (+15.9 units) as favorites, 13-2 (+9.8 units) with a total between 7 and 8.5 runs, 42-12 (+25.2 units) as home favorites of -175 or less and 70-45 (+26.7 units) following a win.  Pro Edge Sports recommends a solid wager on Oakland tonight.

Blockbuster Trade Lifts Spirits: On Friday, Oakland acquired starting pitchers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel from the Cubs for 2012 first-round pick Addison Russell, 2013 first-round pick Billy McKinney and pitcher Dan Strailey.  Samardzija is 2-7 with a 2.83 ERA this season, while Hammel is 7-5 with a 2.98 ERA.

Pro Edge Sports Underdog Game of the Day:

Chicago White Sox (+136) over Seattle Mariners

Analysis: Chicago starter Jose Quintana remains one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball as he takes the mound this afternoon with a 3.44 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 2014, including a 3.06 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in day games and a 1.29 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last three starts.  Since allowing ten runs over 10 1/3-innings in consecutive outings, Quintana has yielded three runs with 21 strikeouts over 21 innings in his last three.  He allowed three hits over seven innings in Sunday’s 4-0 win at Toronto.

Quintana’s counterpart, Seattle right-hander Felix Hernandez, is 10-2 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.92 WHIP this season, including going a perfect 4-0 with a 2.04 ERA and 1.00 WHIP on the road.  The problem for Hernandez is the fact that he is 4-5 with a career 3.98 ERA and 1.26 WHIP versus the White Sox, including allowing a combined 17 earned runs on 28 hits in his last four trips to U.S. Cellular Field, a period covering 25 innings.