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Two Unlikely Success Stories Face Off in Oakland

Toronto veteran Mark Buehrle is the first half of the unlikely success stories toeing the rubber this afternoon as the 35-year-old is 10-5 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season.  Buehrle is also 5-2 with a 2.11 ERA and 1.04 WHIP on the road and 6-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.34 WHIP at night. Buehrle is 8-13 with a 3.63 ERA lifetime versus the Athletics, but he has won his last four starts against them behind a 3.16 ERA.  Coco Crisp and Alberto Callaspo are both 3-for-21 against Buehrle since 2009.

Mark Buehrle’s Metrics:

  • 4.17 xFIP
  • 4.42 SIERA
  • 3.82 xFIP on the road
  • 4.27 xFIP in June

The other half of the unlikely success stories facing off tonight is Oakland southpaw Scott Kazmir, who is 9-3 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 2014.  Kazmir is at his best at home where he is 5-1 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.77 WHIP.  Kazmir, who was tagged for a season-high seven runs over three innings in a 10-1 road loss to the New York Mets in his previous start June 24, has surrendered two runs or fewer in six of his last seven.

Scott Kazmir’s Metrics:

  • 3.45 xFIP
  • 3.36 SIERA
  • 3.46 xFIP at home
  • 3.09 xFIP in June

The difference in this game could come down to the team’s respective bullpen’s as Oakland possesses a significant advantage in this category.  Specifically, Oakland’s bullpen owns a 2.96 ERA and 1.10 WHIP this season, including a 2.93 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at night and a 3.00 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last seven games.  In contrast, Toronto relievers own a pedestrian 4.36 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 2014, including a 4.71 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the road and a 4.61 ERA and 1.47 WHIP at night.

The Blue Jays have also been mired in a slump as they are batting just .227 with a .287 on base percentage over the last ten days (2.7 runs per game).  Toronto’s bats have also struggled on the road where they are batting .249 with a .322 on base percentage (4.3 runs per game).  Meanwhile, Oakland is 19-8 versus southpaws this season against whom they are averaging 5.3 runs per game.

From a technical standpoint, Oakland is a profitable 37-14 (+19.4 units) with a money line of -150 or less, 47-20 (+18.0 units) as favorites, 98-48 (+25.0 units) as home favorites and 36-17 (+19.0 units) in July.  With Kazmir on the mound, his team’s are 24-6 (+15.9 units) as favorites, 13-2 (+9.8 units) with a total between 7 and 8.5 runs, 42-12 (+25.2 units) as home favorites of -175 or less and 70-45 (+26.7 units) following a win.  Pro Edge Sports recommends a solid wager on Oakland tonight.

Blockbuster Trade Lifts Spirits: On Friday, Oakland acquired starting pitchers Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel from the Cubs for 2012 first-round pick Addison Russell, 2013 first-round pick Billy McKinney and pitcher Dan Strailey.  Samardzija is 2-7 with a 2.83 ERA this season, while Hammel is 7-5 with a 2.98 ERA.

Pro Edge Sports Underdog Game of the Day:

Chicago White Sox (+136) over Seattle Mariners

Analysis: Chicago starter Jose Quintana remains one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball as he takes the mound this afternoon with a 3.44 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 2014, including a 3.06 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in day games and a 1.29 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last three starts.  Since allowing ten runs over 10 1/3-innings in consecutive outings, Quintana has yielded three runs with 21 strikeouts over 21 innings in his last three.  He allowed three hits over seven innings in Sunday’s 4-0 win at Toronto.

Quintana’s counterpart, Seattle right-hander Felix Hernandez, is 10-2 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.92 WHIP this season, including going a perfect 4-0 with a 2.04 ERA and 1.00 WHIP on the road.  The problem for Hernandez is the fact that he is 4-5 with a career 3.98 ERA and 1.26 WHIP versus the White Sox, including allowing a combined 17 earned runs on 28 hits in his last four trips to U.S. Cellular Field, a period covering 25 innings.

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