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Tuesday’s Free Sports Pick: Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees

New York Yankees (-140) over Kansas City Royals

Analysis: New York southpaw C.C. Sabathia has been outstanding at Yankee Stadium where he is 6-2 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.23 WHIP this season, including garnering an impressive 61/12 K/BB ratio in 64.7 innings of work. Sabathia also boasts a 3.74 ERA and 1.23 WHIP at night where he owns a 75/14 K/BB ratio in 77 innings pitched. More importantly, Sabathia owns excellent career numbers versus the Royals against whom he is 18-10 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over 35 starts. From a technical standpoint, Sabathia is a profitable 162-79 (+40.9 units) versus teams averaging less than 4.8 runs per game, 52-23 (+15.0 units) as a favorite (10-2 this season), 28-9 (+12.6 units) versus A.L. Central opponents, 38-19 (+10.1 units) at night and 22-12 (+5.4 units) following a loss. It should also be noted that Sabathia has won thirteen consecutive regular-season starts against A.L. Central foes, including going a perfect 4-0 with a 2.35 ERA in four starts against Kansas City since joining the Yankees in 2009.

Sabathia should continue his dominance over a scuffling Kansas City offense that is batting just .258 with a .310 on base percentage this season (4.1 runs per game), including hitting .232 with a .281 on base percentage versus left-handed starters (3.3 runs per game) and .253 with a .300 on base percentage at night (4.1 runs per game). Sabathia also finds support in a consistent New York bullpen that owns a 3.39 ERA and 1.29 WHIP this season, including a 3.36 ERA and 1.19 WHIP at night. Meanwhile, Kansas City starter James Shields has been struggling recently as evidenced by his 4.35 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over his last six outings. Shields takes the mound in poor form with a 6.48 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over his last three starts, including yielding 12 earned runs on 24 hits in 16.7 innings. Let’s also note that Shields is a money-burning 7-15 with a career 4.46 ERA and 1.32 WHIP versus the Yankees, including dropping each of his last two decisions against New York. Even more surprising is the fact that Shields has lost his last six starts at Yankee Stadium. Finally, tonight’s home plate umpire, Angel Hernandez, is a 68.4% winning proposition for home teams in 2013 (5.5 runs per game for home squads). Take New York and invest with confidence.

I am a profitable 228-169-5 (57.3%) on my free sports picks after Monday’s loss on the San Diego Padres. Assuming you risked 1 unit per selection, a $500 sports investor would be up over $17,000 since June 7, 2007.

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