Thursday’s Free Sports Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies

Jul 4, 2013

Colorado Rockies (-122) over Los Angeles Dodgers

Analysis: Colorado right-hander Jhoulys Chacin is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball as evidenced by his 0.76 ERA and 0.760 WHIP over his last three starts, including an eight-inning shutout against the Giants in his last outing.  Chacin finally appears to be putting it all together as he is 7-3 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.19 WHIP this season, and he also finds support in an underrated Colorado bullpen that owns a 3.50 ERA at home and a 3.44 ERA versus division opponents.  Look for Chacin to remain hot against an anemic Los Angeles offense that is averaging 3.8 runs per game this season, including 4.0 runs per game on the road, 4.0 runs per game versus division opponents, 3.7 runs per game at night and 3.7 runs per game versus division opponents.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles starter Chris Capuano is 2-5 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in nine starts this season, and he is coming off a terrible outing against Philadelphia wherein he yielded seven runs on ten hits in 3.7 innings of work.  Let’s also note that Capuano has allowed a combined thirteen runs (10 earned) on 17 hits and 4 walks in his last two trips to Coors Field.  Moreover, Capuano is 1-6 with a 6.11 ERA in his last eight outings against the Rockies.  Capuano is also hindered by a pedestrian Los Angeles bullpen that owns a 4.59 ERA and 1.35 WHIP on the road, a 4.54 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road, a 5.20 ERA and 1.58 WHIP versus division opponents and a 7.16 ERA and 1.96 WHIP over its last seven games.  From a technical standpoint, Los Angeles is a money-burning 5-17 (-10.8 units) as road underdogs, 16-23 (-15.3 units) versus division foes and 28-33 (-16.6 units) at night, while Capuano is 37-60 (-24.1 units) in competitively-priced games and 39-61 (-24.1 units) in the second half of the season.  Finally, the Dodgers are expected to be without Yasiel Puig, who left Wednesday’s game with a leg injury and is day-to-day with a bruised hip.  Take Colorado and invest with confidence.

I am a profitable 225-167-5 (57.3%) on my free sports picks after Wednesday’s winner on the Detroit Tigers.  Assuming you risked 1 unit per selection, a $500 sports investor would be up over $16,800 since June 7, 2007.

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