Having lost five of its last six games, the pressure is squarely on the shoulders of Texas Tech, who needs to win its final two games of the regular season to secure bowl eligibility.
The Red Raiders are a deflated road favorite coming off a heartbreaking 45-44 loss to Oklahoma State due to a missed extra point at the end of the game.
I never advocate investing on road favorites like Texas Tech, who is allowing 42.1 points and 541 total yards per game at 7.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 6.1 yards per play against a mediocre defense.
The Red Raiders’ porous defense is also yielding 45.2 points and 502 total yards at 6.7 yards per play and 11.1 yards per point on the road this season.
Overall, Texas Tech is 0.9 yards per play worse than average defensively, which gives the Cyclones’ subpar attack a significant 0.6 yards per play advantage from the line of scrimmage.
Iowa State is actually 4-1 ATS at home this season where it’s averaging 31.2 points and 412 total yards per game at 8.7 yards per pass attempt and 6.4 yards per play. Indeed, Iowa State is much better at home (+2.0 yards per game) as opposed to on the road (-16.0 yards per game) this season.
And, the Cyclones catch a road-weary Texas Tech squad playing for the eighth consecutive week and in its second of back-to-back road games. The latter point is significant in that the Red Raiders are a money-burning 0-6 ATS in the second of consecutive road affairs.
Finally, since 1980, .499 or worse college football teams that won 7+ games the prior year that enter Game 11 off back-to-back losses are just 21-44-1 ATS.
With Iowa State standing at 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS at home versus teams with a losing record, take the Cyclones plus the points as Oskeim Sports’ Free Pick for Saturday, November 19!