With the 2023 NBA playoffs underway, Oskeim Sports shares some of its most profitable NBA Playoff betting systems and trends. These league-wide technical situations can be used by recreational and professional sports bettors alike to maximize profits during the NBA postseason.
NBA Playoff System No. 1
Since 2004, NBA playoff teams with a line at least eight points greater than their average line during the regular season are 206-625 SU (24.8%) and 354-470-7 ATS (43%), including 27-68 SU (28.4%) and 38-57 ATS (40%) since 2020, losing by an average margin of -8.62 points per game.
NBA Playoff System No. 2
NBA playoff underdogs of two or more points coming off a win that went under the total are 210-164-4 (56.1%) to the Under, including 43-30-1 (58.9%) to the Under since 2019. These games have gone under the posted total by an average margin of 4.26 points per game in that span.
NBA Playoff System No. 3
Since 2005, NBA playoff teams with two or fewer days of rest are 25-39-1 ATS (39%) in Game 1 of either Round 2, Conference Finals or NBA Finals, including 17-31-1 ATS versus opponents with three or more days of rest.
NBA Playoff System No. 4
Since 2003, double-digit NBA playoff favorites are 144-15 SU (90.6%) and 91-65-3 ATS (58.3%), winning by an average margin of +13.5 points per game. These teams are 29-6 SU (82.9%) and 22-11-2 ATS (66.7%) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +12.2 points per game.
NBA Playoff System No. 5
Since 2017, well-rested NBA road teams that have covered four of their last five games are 51-20 (71.8%) to the Under in games with a total between 210 and 219.5 points.
NBA Playoff System No. 6
Since 2017, NBA home favorites of -3.5 to -9.5 with a point differential of +3 to +7 are 77-33 ATS (70%) following two or more consecutive unders against opponents with a +/-3 point differential, including 45-18 ATS (71.4%) over the last three seasons.
NBA Playoff System No. 7
Since 2003, NBA playoff teams coming off an upset loss as home favorites are 29-11 SU (72.5%) and 27-13 ATS (67.5%) as road favorites priced between -1 and -7 points, winning by an average margin of +6.36 points per game over that span.
NBA Playoff System No. 8
Since 2003, NBA teams looking to close out a playoff series as home favorites of -9.5 or more points are 33-2 SU (94.3%) and 19-15-1 ATS (55.9%), winning by an average margin of +12.6 points per game over that span.
NBA Playoff System No. 9
Since 2003, NBA playoff road favorites of -1 to -7.5 points in Game 3 of a tied series are 26-15 SU (63.4%) and 25-15-1 ATS (62.5%), winning by an average margin of +3.15 points per game.
NBA Playoff System No. 10
Since 1996, teams that allowed 98 points or fewer in three consecutive games are 53-22 (70.7%) to the Under versus opponents coming off a game in which they allowed 120 or more points if the total is at least 200 points, including 6-1 to the Under since 2017 and a perfect 3-0 since 2019.
Bonus NBA Playoff System
Since 1995, teams coming off a playoff win as underdogs of at least four points are 104-160 ATS (39.4%) versus the same opponent, including 8-26 SU (23.5%) and 11-23 ATS (32.4%) since 2020, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -4.53 points per game. These teams have failed to cover the spread in 11 of the past 14 games under these circumstances.
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