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Super Bowl Rematch & Betting Preview: Denver vs. Seattle

super-bowl-2014-denver-broncos-vs-seattle-seahawks-at-metlife-stadium-799303bdb1da2778

This is a much-anticipated rematch of last year’s Super Bowl where Seattle destroyed the Broncos 43-8. Despite hearing about the revenge factor all week from the talking heads on television and radio, I expect another convincing Seattle win this afternoon. For starters, Seattle is an incredible 18-1 SU and 14-5 ATS at home with Russell Wilson behind center, 11-4 ATS following a loss and 7-1 ATS as a favorite versus AFC opposition so the Seahawks will be well-prepared for today’s rematch. Let’s also note that Seattle has limited opponents to a mere 255.5 yards per game at home in all regular season contests since 2012 so the Broncos will be hard-pressed to move the chains on Sunday.

Seattle has an extremely well-balanced offense that is averaging 28.5 points per game on 6.3 yards per rush play, 7.0 yards per pass play and 6.7 yards per play against teams that would combine to yield just 6.0 yards per play to a mediocre offensive squad. Overall, the Seahawks are 0.7 yards per play and 2.2 yards per point better than average offensively in 2014, which is bad news for a Denver squad that has been outgained in each of its two wins this season. Indeed, the Broncos have been 0.5 yards per pass attempt and 0.4 yards per play worse than average defensively, thereby giving the Seahawks a solid advantage on the offensive side of the ball.

Denver’s offense has been mediocre this season as the Broncos are averaging 3.7 yards per rush play, 8.0 yards per pass play and 6.1 yards per play against teams that would combine to yield 4.1 yards per rush attempt, 8.1 yards per pass attempt and 6.2 yards per play to a mediocre attack. As you can see, the Broncos have been 0.1 yards per play worse than average through the first two weeks of the 2014 campaign, and I don’t anticipate much improvement against Seattle’s stout defense. The Seahawks have been 0.3 yard per play better than average defensively this season (4.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yards per play), which is certainly good enough to limit Denver’s modest attack.

In its lone home game against Green Bay, the Seahawks limited Aaron Rodgers & Co. to a mere sixteen points on 5.3 yards per pass play and 4.7 yards per play. My math model favors Seattle by seven points and the Seahawks apply to a very good 29-4-1 ATS home bounce-back situation of mine that is predicated upon their upset loss to San Diego last week. Let’s also note that Peyton Manning is 5-24 SU and 11-18 ATS in his NFL career as an underdog of four or more points, including 0-16 SU and 2-14 ATS versus a .665 or worse opponent. Here’s another mind-boggling technical angle: the last fourteen NFL teams seeking single-revenge against the Seahawks are a woeful 1-13 SU and 2-12 ATS.

I have little doubt that Seattle will improve to 19-1 at home under the leadership of Russell Wilson, which is significant in that the Broncos are 3-30 ATS in their last 33 losses as an underdog, including dropping the last eight in this role. Take Seattle and invest with confidence.

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