Sunday’s Major League Baseball Best Bet: San Diego Padres

May 3, 2015


San Diego right-hander James Shields is enjoying a solid 2015 campaign, going 2-0 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in his first five starts. Shields, who signed the largest contract in Padres history (four years, $75 million), has delivered a quality start in each of his first five outings. The 33-year-old is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.84 WHIP at home this season, holding opponents to a .227 batting average. Even more impressive is the fact that the veteran hurler hasn’t given up more than one run in any of his three home starts.

James Shields’ 2015 Metrics:

3.24 FIP & 2.82 xFIP
2.62 SIERA
31.8% K% & 7.0% BB%
17.0% Swinging Strike Rate

Shields now faces a scuffling Colorado lineup that is batting just .255 with a .294 on base percentage on the road (3.7 runs per game) and .256 with a .305 on base percentage versus division opponents (3.4 runs per game). Shields is also supported by a San Diego bullpen that owns a 3.34 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in day games and a 3.16 ERA and 1.15 WHIP versus division foes.

Let’s also note that the Padres are 12-3 against the Rockies at Petco Park since the 2013 All-Star Break, which is tied for the third-best home winning percentage in Major League Baseball against a divisional opponent in that time.

Colorado sends Kyle Kendrick to the mound, who is 1-3 with an 8.36 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in 2015. Kendrick is also 1-2 with a 7.87 ERA and 1.81 WHIP on the road and 0-2 with a 10.12 ERA and 1.87 WHIP over his last three starts.

Kyle Kendrick’s 2015 Metrics:

6.96 FIP & 4.69 xFIP
4.73 SIERA
13.9% K% & 8.5% BB%

Colorado’s bullpen is also a liability with a 4.54 ERA and 1.32 WHIP this season, including a 4.98 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road, a 5.37 ERA and 1.51 WHIP versus division opponents and a 6.41 ERA and 1.87 WHIP over the last seven games. From a technical standpoint, the Rockies are 35-72 versus right-handed starters, 23-59 off a loss, 15-43 versus .501 or greater opposition, 13-46 on the road, including 11-45 versus right-handed starters and 16-44 versus teams with a winning road record.

Conversely, San Diego is 37-17 at home, 24-10 at home versus right-handed starters and 12-4 at home versus .499 or worse opposition.  With Colorado standing at 2-8 in its last ten games with umpire Scott Barry behind the plate, take the surging home favorite in this Major League Baseball division clash and invest with confidence.

Major League Baseball Best Bet: San Diego Padres