Sunday Night Football: Panthers at Saints

Dec 7, 2013

New Orleans is 14-0 SU and 13-1 ATS at home since 2011, and the Saints have not lost consecutive games since 2009.  However, the situation could not be worse for Sean Payton’s squad as the Saints are coming off a humiliating 34-7 loss on Monday night and had their week shortened even further due to a delay with the team’s charter flight.   As a result, New Orleans was forced to stay over in Seattle Monday and did not arrive home until Tuesday afternoon (12 hours later than planned).  “It’s a setback and now you’re on a short week, but we have to make the corrections,” Payton said.  “We can’t just say it didn’t happen.  But that being said, we have to quickly get focused on Carolina.  They’re playing as good football as anybody in the league right now.”

The Saints are averaging 26.0 points per game at 3.8 yards per rush play, 7.6 yards per pass attempt and 6.2 yards per play, but their offensive output is even better at home where they are averaging 33.2 points per game at 6.7 yards per play this season.  Overall, New Orleans is 1.0 yards per pass attempt and 0.6 yards per play better than average offensively, but the Saints’ attack will be challenged by a solid Carolina stop unit.

The Panthers are allowing just 13.1 points per game at 3.7 yards per rush play, 6.2 yards per pass attempt and 5.2 yards per play, which is 0.2 yards per play better than average. The weak link for Carolina is its secondary that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 66.7% of their passes this season, which is a recipe for disaster against Drew Brees.  I expect New Orleans to throw the ball early and often as Brees & Co. possess a significant 0.8 yards per pass play advantage offensively over the Panthers’ secondary.  Brees has eclipsed 300 yards in each of the six home games this season, with 19 touchdowns and three interceptions.  His 122.2 home passer rating is second in the league to that of Aaron Rodgers.  Brees is also a player who rises to the occasion as evidenced by the fact that he is 20-6 ATS versus .666 or greater opponents off consecutive wins.

Technical Support for New Orleans:

  • 18-5 ATS at home; 17-4 ATS as home favorites
  • 12-2 ATS as home favorites of 7 points or less
  • 8-1 ATS at home following one or more consecutive losses
  • 12-3 ATS at home after the first month of the season

With Carolina standing at 0-7 ATS as an underdog of ten points or less versus an opponent with revenge, Pro Edge Sports recommends an investment on the small home favorite.