It’s not too difficult to understand why professional handicappers and betting syndicates alike are bullish on the Maryland Terrapins this season. Head coach Randy Edsall finally has playmakers on both sides of the ball, including senior quarterback C.J. Brown, who has averaged 9.5 yards per rush play in his collegiate career (10.1 yards per rush play this season). Scouts suggested over the summer that Brown had improved upon his passing, but I am shocked by the fact that he has completed 67% of his pass attempts at 10.6 yards per pass play this season. Let’s take a look at Maryland’s week 4 matchup against West Virginia:
Maryland (-5) (-110) over West Virginia
Maryland is averaging 40.7 points per game this season, including 262 rushing yards (6.0 yards per rush play), 292 passing yards (11.0 yards per pass attempt) and 555 total yards (7.9 yards per play). Overall, the Terrapins are 1.1 yards per rush play, 1.6 yards per pass attempt and 1.3 yards per play better than average offensively in 2013.
Maryland Offense vs. West Virginia Defense:
- +0.3 yards per rush play advantage
- +1.0 yards per pass attempt advantage
- +0.5 yards per play advantage overall
I am very surprised that West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen decided to start redshirt freshman quarterback Ford Childress against Georgia State last week. My metrics show that quarterback Paul Millard is a much better option behind center for the Mountaineers, and Childress is expected to struggle greatly against an outstanding Maryland secondary.
My math model shows 35 total points for Maryland, which is significant in that the Terrapins are a profitable 24-7 ATS (+16.3 units) when they score 29 to 35 points in a game. Meanwhile, West Virginia is 5-15 ATS on the road versus ACC opposition so the technical analysis also favors the Terrapins in this contest. Lay the points and invest with confidence.
