This game highlights the betting public’s propensity to overreact to short-term results. Southern Mississippi is coming off a 55-32 upset loss to UTSA as 17-point favorites, whereas the Tigers are coming off a convincing 42-7 win over Missouri under interim head coach Ed Orgeron.
Southern Mississippi is 4-2 SU this season and has already taken down an SEC opponent (Kentucky) on the road in Week One. The Golden Eagles possess a very good offense that is averaging 40.2 points per game and 532 total yards at 6.6 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 6.3 yards per play to a mediocre offensive squad.
Southern Mississippi can move the chains on the ground (4.9 yards per rush attempt) and through the air (8.6 yards per pass attempt).
Head coach Jay Hopson confirmed on Tuesday that quarterback Nick Mullens would be “ready to play” after injuring the thumb on his throwing hand last week against UTSA. Reports indicate that Mullens has fully participated in practice this week and has looked good.
Meanwhile, LSU starting safety Rickey Jefferson suffered a broken ankle in practice on Wednesday and could miss the remainder of the season. Jefferson has started every game this season and has 23 tackles and one interception.
LSU will also be without starting running back Leonard Fournette, who has missed a majority of the 2016 season due to a nagging ankle injury.
From a technical standpoint, Southern Mississippi is 7-1 ATS on the road versus .799 or worse opposition and 18-10 ATS as a double-digit underdog versus SEC foes since 1990. The Eagles are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss, 7-2-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference affairs and 11-4 ATS in their last fifteen road games.
With LSU standing at 5-11 ATS following a win by 20+ points and likely looking ahead to next week’s game against Mississippi, grab the generous points with the Eagles and invest with confidence.