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Saturday’s Free Sports Pick: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals (-129) over Chicago White Sox

Investment Advice: Please list both Jose Quintana and Wade Davis

Analysis: Kansas City right-hander Wade Davis appears to be settling into the rotation as he is 1-0 with a 2.04 ERA in his last three starts, including garnering 15 strikeouts in 17.7 innings of work over the span.  Davis is also 2-1 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in five day starts this season and, more importantly, he is 3-1 with a career 2.01 ERA and 1.18 WHIP versus the White Sox.  Look for Davis to continue his domination over an anemic Chicago lineup that is batting just .242 with a .292 on base percentage in 2013 (3.7 runs per game), including hitting .241 with a .287 on base percentage versus right-handed starters (3.7 runs per game) and .239 with a .292 on base percentage in day games (3.7 runs per game).  I also like the fact that Davis is supported by an outstanding Kansas City bullpen that owns a 2.87 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season, including a 2.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP at home and a 2.29 ERA and 1.20 WHIP versus division opponents.  I should also note that Alex Rios and Gordon Beckham are a combined 0-for-27 against Davis.

From a technical standpoint, Davis is a profitable 18-6 (+11.0 units) versus teams with a losing record and 11-2 (+8.9 units) versus teams averaging 4.2 runs or less per game, whereas the White Sox are a money-burning 14-27 (-12.6 units) on the road and 16-25 (-10.5 units) versus teams with a losing record.  The problem for Chicago southpaw Jose Quintana is the fact that he is averaging less than six innings per start this season, which is good news for us in that the White Sox bullpen owns a pedestrian 4.16 ERA on the road and a 4.15 ERA in day games.  Indeed, Quintana was pulled Monday after throwing 104 pitches in just 4.7 innings at Houston (2 R; 5 H; 3 BB).  Quintana is also 0-1 with a career 4.50 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in four starts against the Royals, including yielding 15 hits in his last 13 innings of work at Kansas City.  Jeff Francoeur is 6-for-8 with a home run against Quintana, while teammate Mike Moustakas is 6-for-12 with two home runs against the Chicago southpaw.  Take Kansas City and invest with confidence.

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