San Francisco starter Tim Hudson is 76-29 (+33.1 units) at home during the first half of the season, 57-20 (+24.6 units) in afternoon home games, 69-27 (+26.0 units) following a loss and 56-22 (+25.1 units) at home with a total between 7 and 7.5 runs. Hudson’s success is predicated upon an elite groundball rate that allows him to remain a viable #2 or #3 starter in the major leagues.
Hudson’s Groundball Rate:
2010: 64%
2011: 57%
2012: 55%
2013: 56%
Tim Hudson’s Success at AT&T Park:
Hudson is coming off an outstanding start against the Diamondbacks wherein he did not issue a walk, which is significant in that he is an incredible 49-16 (+27.5 units) after a game in which he did not walk a batter. Hudson has enjoyed tremendous success at AT&T Park. In 2010, he garnered a 2.57 ERA; in 2011 he posted a 2.08 ERA; and in 2012 he boasted a 1.29 ERA. Even more remarkable is the fact that Hudson has issued just one walk over the last 30.2 innings pitched at AT&T Park.
San Francisco’s Elite Bullpen:
Hudson is also supported by an outstanding San Francisco bullpen that owns a 2.13 ERA and 1.07 WHIP this season, including a 0.56 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at home, a 0.82 ERA and 0.45 WHIP in day games and a 0.87 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last seven contests. In contrast, Colorado relievers own a pedestrian 4.20 ERA on the year, including a 4.50 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road.
Colorado Starter Tyler Chatwood:
Colorado right-hander Tyler Chatwood struggled in spring training wherein he compiled a 4.20 ERA and 1.60 WHIP, including issuing nine walks in just 15.0 innings of work. Chatwood suffered a left hamstring strain on March 30 and will be making his first start of the season this afternoon. Look for Chatwood to struggle in light of the fact that the Rockies are a money-burning 24-53 (-19.8 units) as road underdogs and 31-47 (-19.6 units) following a win.
Finally, Hudson is 35-16 (+17.9 units) over the last three seasons, including a perfect 10-0 versus division opponents and 10-0 at home. With San Francisco standing at a profitable 49-34 (+14.2 units) versus division foes over the last two season, take the Giants and invest with confidence.