San Francisco Looks to Make Noise in the NIT

Mar 19, 2014

At 21-11, San Francisco is one of the most underrated teams in the NIT this season, and we expect the Dons to advance past LSU tonight in the opening round.  San Francisco is 23-11 ATS versus teams with a winning record, 10-1 ATS in competitively-priced games (+3 to -3), 23-12 ATS following a conference game and 23-8 ATS after covering the point spread in two of its last three games.  Our claim that the Dons are overrated is substantiated by the fact that they are 33-21 ATS over the last two seasons.

San Francisco is 13-5 at home this season where the Dons averaged 78.7 points per game on 49.2% shooting from the field and 38.1% from beyond the arc.  Overall, San Francisco is averaging 75.2 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 71.2 points per game, thereby making the Dons 4.0 points per game better than average offensively.  With LSU being just 0.1 points per game better than average defensively (71.2 points per game to teams that would combine to average 71.3 points per game), the Dons possess a 3.9 points per game advantage on the offensive end of the floor.

The most important aspect of tonight’s game is the current form of both teams.  San Francisco won four of its last five games over which time the Dons limited opponents to a mere 62.4 points per game on 39.3% shooting from the floor and 26.9% from three-point territory.  Meanwhile, LSU lost three of its last five games over which time the Tigers averaged 62.8 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field.  In short, San Francisco’s defense improved dramatically towards the end of the regular season, whereas the Tigers’ offense fell off a cliff.  Let’s also note that LSU is a money-burning 6-10 SU and 5-9 ATS on the road this season, including losing seven of its last eight road games.

The experts at Pro Edge Sports like San Francisco tonight, and recommend a solid wager on the money line at -145 odds or better.  As for a few other games on our experts’ radar, consider Iowa, UTEP, Louisiana Tech and Quinnipiac.