Miami opened up as 2.5-point home underdogs at most off shore sports books earlier this week, but a respected betting group immediately grabbed that number and drove the point spread down to a pick as of Saturday morning. The experts at Pro Edge Sports agree with the market adjustment and still favor the Dolphins at the existing number. Let’s take a closer look at the matchup between New England and Miami:
New England is averaging 26.8 points per game at 4.2 yards per rush play, 6.6 yards per pass attempt and 5.6 yards per play this season. Overall, the Patriots are 0.2 yards per rush play, 0.2 yards per pass play and 0.2 yards per play better than average offensively. However, the loss of tight end Rob Gronkowski, who suffered a serious knee injury in the Patriots 27-26 win over Cleveland last week, is a significant blow to New England’s attack. “I mean, it’s disappointing to lose anybody, but we’ve faced that before this year and at different times, so I’d say at least we’re adjusted to it a little bit,” Tom Brady said. “We still have confidence that we can go out and win games.”
According to the Boston Globe, Tom Brady completed 56.9% of his pass attempts without Gronkowski on the field this season as compared to completing 64.7% of his passes from Week Seven on with Gronkowski on the field. The loss of Gronkowski cannot be understated, and the Dolphins take the field with a decent secondary that is 0.3 yards per pass play better than average this season. The Dolphins are also fighting for their playoff lives as they are currently tied with Baltimore for the sixth and final playoff spot. “All the games are going to be tough,” Miami cornerback Brent Grimes said. “We just need to win. I don’t know how you’re looking at it, but we need to win. We need to take care of our business.”
New England is 1-6 ATS on the road this season, but Tom Brady is a remarkable 41-8 SU in his career in the final four games of the season. However, the Dolphins are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs and we lean with Miami Sunday afternoon.