Oskeim Sports’ award-winning sports handicappers provide profitable NFL Betting Systems of Week 1, including the games between Jacksonville and Indianapolis and Las Vegas and Denver.
Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) (-110) at Denver Broncos
Report: Since 1999, single-digit underdogs in the first three weeks of the season are 244-168-17 ATS (59.2%) if they won fewer than seven games the previous season, including 8-1-1 ATS since September 12, 2022. Since 1995, NFL road underdogs of less than seven points that won fewer than seven games the previous season are 585-455-33 ATS (56.2%), including 92-54-4 ATS (63%) since 2019. Since 1995, road underdogs of less than seven points that won fewer than seven games the previous season are 154-81-10 ATS (65.5%) in the first four weeks of the regular season, covering the spread by an average of +3.3 points per game. These road underdogs are at their best in season openers, going 53-21-6 ATS (71.6%) since 1989 with a +5.31 points per game ATS margin of victory.
The above-referenced 585-455-33 ATS system also contains profitable 93-52-6 ATS (64.1%) and 73-46-6 ATS (61.3%) subset angles. Since 1989, week 1 road underdogs of less than a touchdown that won two or fewer road games the previous season are 46-19-5 ATS (70.8%), including 72.7% ATS since September 12, 2016. Since 2009, divisional underdogs in season openers are 50-25-2 ATS (66.7%), covering the spread by an average margin of +3.4 points per game. These divisional underdogs have been even better since 2015, going 26-12-1 ATS (68.4%), covering the spread by an average of +4.6 points per game.
Since 1999, week 1 road underdogs that didn’t make the playoffs the previous season are 104-68-5 ATS (60.5%), including 8-2 ATS (80%) since September 13, 2020. Since 2017, AFC underdogs of seven points or less are 234-177-13 ATS (56.9%) versus conference opponents, including 87-61-3 ATS (58.8%) since 2021. NFL opening week road teams that won between 4-6 games the prior season are 49-21-5 ATS (70%) since 2004, generating a return of +34.5% in that span.
Week 1 favorites with revenge for a loss the prior season are 15-22 SU and 13-24 ATS (35.1%) over the last eleven seasons. The Raiders enter the 2023-24 season undervalued as they were only outscored by 23 points last year and were 4-9 in one-score games. Finally, Las Vegas quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is 15-7 SU and 17-5 ATS as an underdog in his career. Grab the points with Las Vegas and invest with confidence.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (+5) (-110)
Report: Since 2009, divisional underdogs in season openers are 50-25-2 ATS (66.7%), covering the spread by an average margin of +3.4 points per game. These divisional underdogs have been even better since 2015, going 26-12-1 ATS (68.4%), covering the spread by an average of +4.6 points per game. Since 2004, divisional home underdogs in September affairs are 72-45-1 ATS (61.5%), including 18-9 ATS (66.7%) since 2018. Since 2009, week 1 divisional home underdogs are 16-7-2 SU and 21-4 ATS (84%), including 10-1 ATS since September 13, 2015, and 7-0 ATS since September 10, 2017. Since 2011, week 1 divisional home underdogs with totals of less than 48 points are a 9-2-2 straight-up and 13-0 ATS, winning by an average of +7.0 points per game and covering the spread by an average of +11.46 points per game.
Since 1990, week 1 divisional teams that played in the playoffs the previous season are 16-41 ATS (28.1%) versus non-playoff teams from the prior season, failing to cover the spread by an average of -4.11 points per game. Since 1992, week 1 teams that finished above .500 the previous season are 63-97-5 ATS (39.4%) versus teams that finished below .500 the prior season. Week 1 divisional road favorites of -2.5 to -5.5 points are 17-27 ATS (38.6%) since 1989, including 1-10-1 straight-up and 0-12 ATS since September 10, 2010. Since 2012, week 1 AFC divisional road favorites are 0-8 ATS, failing to cover the Vegas number by an average of -10.56 points per game.
Since 1992, week 1 teams that lost ten or more games the previous season are 113-75-5 ATS (60.1%) versus teams that had fewer than ten losses the prior season, including 51-30-3 ATS (63%) since 2011, covering the spread by an average of +3.61 points per game. Since 1999, single-digit underdogs in the first three weeks of the season are 244-168-17 ATS (59.2%) if they won fewer than seven games the previous season, including 8-1-1 ATS since September 12, 2022. Since 1989, week 1 underdogs that won fewer than six games the previous season are 132-91-7 ATS (59.2%), including 17-10-1 ATS (63%) since 2019 and 9-4 ATS (69.2%) since September 14, 2020.
Since 2017, AFC underdogs of seven points or less are 234-177-13 ATS (56.9%) versus conference opponents, including 87-61-3 ATS (58.8%) since 2021. Finally, since 1989, week 1 divisional road favorites of -2.5 to -5.5 points are 17-27 ATS (38.6%), including 1-10-1 straight-up and 0-12 ATS since September 10, 2010. Grab the points with the Colts and invest with confidence.
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