The professional handicappers at Oskeim Sports have the winning information you need before betting on Thursday’s MLB games. Oskeim’s MLB Betting Market Report gives you the winning edge.
Texas Rangers at Miami Marlins OVER 7 runs (-110)
Analysis: Since September 23, 2018, the Miami Marlins are 8-0 OVER if both teams are .549 or worse and are coming off games in which they scored two or fewer runs. Since July 15, 2017, favorites in the first game after the All-Star break are 16-7 (69.6%) OVER if they are not playing with revenge and the total is between 7 and 9.5 runs. Miami also falls into a very strong MLB totals system of mine that is 8-1 OVER since August 29, 2016. Take the over in game 1 of the doubleheader and invest with confidence.
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers (-138)
Analysis: Since March 28, 2019, the Dodgers are 13-0 straight-up in divisional home games versus opposing starting pitchers who beat them on the road in their last matchup. Los Angeles won by an average of 3.46 runs per game in those contests while averaging 5.77 runs per game. Since May 12, 2021, home favorites following a non-divisional affair in which they had fewer than nine hits are 39-9 (+36.4% ROI) straight-up and 28-20 (+37.0% ROI) against the run line versus opponents entering off a game as favorites. These teams have won by an average margin of 2.1 runs per game over that span.
Finally, Los Angeles starter Julio Urias owns a 2.43 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in seventeen career outings against the Giants. Take Los Angeles and invest with confidence.
Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics (-157)
Analysis: Since September 1, 2020, the Tigers are 1-16 (-88.3% ROI) straight-up and 4-13 (-53.0% ROI) against the run line following a shutout loss by four or more runs. Since May 10, 2019, the Tigers are 0-11 straight-up and 1-10 (-80.0% ROI) against the run line following a loss by ten runs or more provided they are not coming off a double-header.
However, the Tigers are a profitable 38-3 (+48.4% ROI) straight-up and 31-10 (+64.6% ROI) against the run line since September 1, 2020, as favorites of -125 or greater following a shutout loss with a starting pitcher who was an underdog in his previous outing. Let’s also note that non-divisional road favorites are 81-39 (+14.7% ROI) straight-up and 68-52 (+17.5%) against the run line in games with a total of eight runs or less.
Additional Betting Trends for Thursday, July 21
- Since May 22, 2021, Miami starting pitcher Pablo Lopez is 8-0 straight-up at home following an outing in which he did not earn a quality start. Lopez yielded two runs or fewer in seven of those starts.
- Since September 13, 2021, the New York Yankees are 16-3 (+24.4% ROI) straight-up in game 1 of a non-divisional series.
- Since April 19, 2022, the New York Yankees are 22-5 (+21.0% ROI) straight-up in game 1 of a series.
- Since September 30, 2020, the New York Yankees are 11-0 straight-up and 9-2 (+49.0% ROI) against the run line following a game that was decided by nine or more runs.
- Since August 4, 2020, Houston starting pitcher Cristian Javier is 15-7 (+14.2% ROI) straight-up following an outing in which he averaged 3.9 or more pitches per batter.
- Since September 18, 2019, the Texas Rangers are 7-21 (-44.1% ROI) straight-up on the road with a starting pitcher who won his previous two outings.
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