Oskeim’s MLB Betting Market Report for Thursday, July 14

Jul 14, 2022

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The professional handicappers at Oskeim Sports have the winning information you need before betting on Thursday’s MLB games.  Oskeim’s MLB Betting Market Report gives you the winning edge.

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) (-115)

Analysis: This season, underdogs in the first game of a divisional series are 7-27 straight-up following a road loss as underdogs. Since September 15, 2018, the Tigers are 6-22 (-48.0% ROI) straight-up and 11-17 (-50.0% ROI) against the run line in road affairs versus starting pitchers with same-season revenge. Cleveland is a profitable 14-3 (+11.4 units) against the run line following a one-run loss versus divisional opponents over the last three seasons. Finally, Cleveland starter Triston McKenzie is 2-1 with a 1.17 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in five career outings against the Tigers, including two shutouts. Take the Guardians and invest with confidence.

Milwaukee Brewers (-104) at San Francisco Giants

Analysis: San Francisco falls into a negative 12-29 system that invests against certain teams with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better over his last ten outings if his team’s bullpen has posted a 1.75 WHIP or worse over its last fifteen games. Since 2020, non-divisional road favorites are 44-8 straight-up if (1) their starting pitcher lost his last H2H start versus the current opponent (2) the opposing starter’s previous line was shorter than the current game and (3) the total is equal to or less than yesterday’s total.

Since March 27, 2022, non-divisional road favorites are 75-38 (+13.8% ROI) straight-up in games with a posted total of 8 runs or less. Finally, Milwaukee right-hander Corbin Burnes is 1-0 with a 0.92 ERA and 0.66 WHIP in three career starts against the Giants, a span covering 19 2/3 innings (25 K, 3 BB). Take the Brewers and invest with confidence.

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (-154)

Analysis: Minnesota applies to a very good 70-26 system that invests on certain American League home favorites priced between -125 and -175 that are allowing 4.4 or fewer runs per game versus starting pitchers who did not give up an earned run in their previous outing. Since July 26, 2018, Minnesota starting pitcher Sonny Gray is 13-2 (+36.0%) straight-up as a favorite of -145 or greater following a game in which his team scored four runs or less. This situation is 11-1 straight-up since May 4, 2019, and 6-0 straight-up since September 7, 2021.

Finally, Chicago is a money-burning 14-18 (-10.4 units) versus divisional opponents and 19-27 (-13.8 units) in night games this season. Take Minnesota and invest with confidence.

Additional Betting Nuggets for Thursday, July 14

  • Home underdogs are 25-9 straight-up this month versus .501 or greater opposition if the line is +145 or shorter.
  • Since April 4, 2018, Cincinnati starting pitcher Luis Castillo is 2-12 (-69.7% ROI) straight-up and -12.4% ROI against the run line as a road underdog following an outing in which he threw more than 100 pitches.
  • Since September 25, 2020, the Minnesota Twins are 15-8 (65.2%) OVER as favorites of -140 or greater following a win in which they never trailed.
  • Since June 22, 2021, Colorado starting pitcher Kyle Freeland is 9-0 UNDER following an outing in which he allowed at least four earned runs.

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