Oskeim’s MLB Betting Market Report for Monday, July 11

Jul 11, 2022

mlb betting, mlb betting picks, mlb betting odds

The professional handicappers at Oskeim Sports have the winning information you need before betting on Monday’s MLB games.  Oskeim’s MLB Betting Market Report gives you the winning edge.

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (-130)

Analysis: Since May 22, 2019, Atlanta is 25-5 (+40.6% ROI) straight-up and 23-7 (+46.0% ROI) against the run line with Max Fried on the if he won his previous start as a home favorite. This situation is 9-1 straight-up in its last ten circumstances and 5-0 in its last five attempts. This season, divisional favorites in game 1 of a series where the total does not equal the previous game’s total are 24-5 straight-up if the game is not being played on a Thursday. Since 2008, unrested underdogs of +110 or greater in game 1 of a series are a money-burning 151-318 (-22.3% ROI) straight-up following an extra-inning affair, including 13-34 (+15.6% ROI) straight-up since May 1, 2021.

One word of caution, however.  The New York Mets are 23-2 (+65.6% ROI) straight-up and 19-6 (+54.0% ROI) against the run line since April 12, 2022, following a loss in which they drew two or more walks.

Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals OVER 7.5 runs (-110)

Analysis: Since July 24, 2018, the Phillies are 16-5 (76.2%) OVER as favorites following a loss as underdogs in which they blew a lead. Since August 25, 2018, the Phillies are 20-7 (74.1%) OVER as road favorites following a loss in which they blew a lead. Since August 24, 2019, the Phillies are 11-4 (73.3%) OVER on the road following a game in which their starting pitcher lasted fewer than three innings. Take the over and invest with confidence.

Additional Betting Trends for Monday, July 11

  • Since September 17, 2021, divisional road favorites off a win are 35-15 (+20.8% ROI) straight-up and 29-21 (+25.4% ROI) against the run line with a starting pitcher who lost his previous outing.
  • In games played from July 1 forward, MLB home favorites of -126 or greater are 23-3 straight-up in the first game of a divisional series if they hit three or more home runs in their previous game.  This situation is 10-2 against the run line in its last twelve circumstances.
  • Since May 31, 2021, non-divisional favorites facing consecutive opponents that won on the road as underdogs in their previous game (and one of those games went under the total) are 27-5 straight-up if the line is longer or equal to the previous game.
  • Since March 25, 2022, non-divisional road favorites are 75-35 (+15.6% ROI) straight-up and 66-44 (+24.0% ROI) against the run line in games with a total of eight runs or less.
  • Since August 28, 2018, the Kansas City Royals are 62-41 (+7.0% ROI) straight-up as favorites.
  • Since September 4, 2017, starting pitcher Alex Cobb is 13-1 (92.9%) OVER as a favorite following an outing in which he lasted more than five innings.
  • Since April 28, 2021, the Arizona Diamondbacks are 53-123 (-25.4% ROI) straight-up as underdogs.

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