Oskeim’s MLB Betting Market Report for Friday, June 24

Jun 24, 2022

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The professional handicappers at Oskeim Sports have the winning information you need before betting on Friday’s MLB games. Oskeim’s MLB Betting Market Report gives you the winning edge you need.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays (-190)

Analysis: Since July 2, 2018, the Pirates are 1-16 (-77.6% ROI) straight-up and 4-13 (-54.3% ROI) against the run line as underdogs following a come-from-behind win in which they scored first. Since March 27, 2008, unrested underdogs of +110 or more entering off an extra-inning affair are a money-burning 150-315 (-22.2% ROI) straight-up and 228-232 (-14.3% ROI) against the run line in game 1 of a series. Fading these underdogs on the money line has produced a 79-33 (+11.1% ROI) record since 2018 (+10.3% ROI on RL). Tampa Bay has lost four of its last six games, which is significant in that the Rays are 16-4 (+13.2 units) at home under these circumstances over the last two seasons.

Pittsburgh right-hander Mitch Keller averages 5.0 innings per start, which is relevant in that the Rays are 27-6 (+16.2 units) at home versus opposing pitchers who are averaging 5.0 or fewer innings per start. Tampa Bay southpaw Jeffrey Springs toes the rubber with a 2.00 ERA and 2.98 FIP in seventeen appearances (9 starts) this season, a span covering 54.0 innings. Springs owns a 1.09 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 2.93 FIP at home this season (24 2/3 IP) and batters are not making solid contact against him in June (24.6% Hard%).

However, before laying your hard-earned money on the Rays, consider the following.  Keller struggled early in the season and after seven starts the Pirates put him in the bullpen.  After two relief appearances, Keller has made four starts over which time he has a 2.42 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 19.1 K%.  Keller started throwing a sinker, which first appeared in May where he used it 11.7% of the time.  The sinker has become Keller’s primary pitch in June with a 38.7% usage rate.  He removed the four-seam from his repertoire and replaced it with a plus-sinker that has better movement and induces weak contact.

Four Seam vs. Sinker

• The four-seam has a .374 wOBA against, a .495 SLG against, and a .308 batting average against
• The sinker has a .293 wOBA against, a .282 SLG against, and a .205 batting average against

The Rays offense has been pathetic this month, sitting 27th in wRC+ against righties along with a 26% K rate.

Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals (-130)

Analysis: Since September 1, 2020, favorites of -125 or greater coming off a shutout loss are 36-2 (+52.1% ROI) straight-up and 42-24 (+37.2% ROI) against the run line with starting pitchers who were underdogs in their previous outing. Since August 28, 2018, the Royals are 60-39 (+8.5% ROI) straight-up as favorites. Kansas City starter Zack Greinke is a profitable 140-61 (+41.7 units) as a home favorite, 116-51 (+37.8 units) at home versus teams averaging seven or more strikeouts per game, 62-21 (+29.1 units) at home versus teams averaging fewer than three walks per game and 58-19 (+32.0 units) at home versus opponents averaging less than 0.9 home runs per game.

Finally, Greinke is 11-3 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 20 career starts against Baltimore, including allowing just one run in his past two starts against the Orioles (14.0 IP, 1 R, 1 ER, 7H, 12 K, 0 BB). Take Kansas City and invest with confidence.

Philadelphia Phillies (-116) at San Diego Padres

Analysis: Since March 11, 2022, non-division road favorites in games with a total of 8 runs or less are 70-27 (+23.4% ROI).  This situation contains a subset angle that is 18-5.  Road favorites are 45-13 straight-up versus opponents they defeated in their previous matchup with starting pitchers who lost their prior personal matchup.  Take Philadelphia and invest with confidence.