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Oskeim’s Free Pick Winner for October 30: Washington at Stanford

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Oskeim provides a detailed betting preview and free pick winner in Saturday’s college football game between the Washington Huskies and Stanford Cardinal.

Washington (+2.5) (-110) at Stanford

Analysis: The wrong team is favored in this game as my math model favors Washington by 0.29 points and the Cardinal fall into a very negative 13-41 ATS system of mine that invests on certain teams off a road game in competitively-priced games (i.e. +3 to -3) in the month of October.  This situation fits nicely with the fact that Stanford is 0-6 ATS following a road loss over the last three seasons.

Stanford enters off a bye week but the Cardinal have failed to cover the point spread in each of their past four games following a week of rest.  Stanford entered its bye on a two-game losing streak (Arizona State & Washington State) and has been outgained in six of its seven games this season (minus-57 yards per game).

Let’s also note that Stanford is just 3-8-1 ATS in its last twelve games off a loss, while the underdog has covered the point spread in four straight meetings in this series.  Since 1990, college football underdogs with seventeen or more returning starters and playing with revenge are a near-perfect 19-1 ATS (95%) following consecutive against-the-spread losses versus .499 or worse opposition entering off back-to-back losses.

Washington should have success running the ball against a subpar Stanford defense that ranks 127 rushing success rate (54%), 111th in yards per rush attempt (5.9) and 117th in EPA/Rush (0.31).  The Huskies’ offensive line ranks 25th in the nation in offensive line success rate (85%), 13th in Havoc rate allowed (8%) and 33rd in tackles for loss allowed (3.8%).

Both teams have excellent pass defenses so I expect a heavy dose of runs in this game.  I’ll gladly take the points with the team owning a superior ground attack (45% rushing success rate vs. 54% rushing success rate allowed).  Grab the points with Washington as Oskeim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, October 30.