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Oskeim’s Free Pick Winner: San Diego State at Air Force

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Oskeim Sports provides a detailed betting preview and free sports pick in Saturday’s college football game between San Diego State and Air Force.  Be sure to check back daily for more free pick winners from the #1 Ranked Handicapping Service in the industry.  And, don’t miss Oskeim’s award-winning subscription specials at the online store!

San Diego State survived double overtime last Friday night against San Jose State, leaving the field with a 19-13 victory to improve to 6-0.  Air Force is one of the hottest teams in the country, winning four straight games, including a 24-17 win over Boise State on the blue turf last Saturday.

My math model favors Air Force by 3.1 points in this game so the line is fair but the Aztecs apply to a very good 31-11 ATS system of mine that invests on certain college football road teams coming off a straight-up win that possess solid defenses. San Diego State also finds support in a profitable 73-34 ATS situation that backs college football teams that are averaging 31 or more points per game in competitively-priced games (i.e. +3 to -3) if they allowed seventeen or fewer points in each of their previous two contests.

Since 1980, unrested 6-0 college football underdogs in Game 7 of the season that allow 17.5 or fewer points per game are 15-1-1 ATS (94%) versus opponents that allow more than 16.0 points per game.

The matchup is very favorable to San Diego State as the Aztecs own the nation’s top-ranked rush defense that is allowing just 61 rushing yards per game at 2.1 yards per rush attempt.  San Diego State is third in the country in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, third in Defensive Line Yards and second in EPA/rush.

Air Force’s one-dimensional attack – the Falcons average approximately 66 carries per game – ranks 129th in the country in passing yards per game (79.0).  The Falcons rank 118th in offensive explosiveness and will have to sustain long drives against the best front seven they have faced this season.

Even if the Falcons decide to throw the ball more in this game, they will do so against an elite San Diego State secondary that allows just 5.3 yards per attempt (4th-best in FBS). The Aztecs are also seventh in EPA/Pass allowed and are graded as the fourth-best coverage unit, per Pro Football Focus.

The key for San Diego State is slowing down the Falcons’ top two weapons.  Running back Brad Roberts has 178 carries, 818 yards, and 8 touchdowns on the season and ranks fifth in the nation in rushing yards.  Junior quarterback Haaziq Daniels has 101 carries, 525 yards, and 9 touchdowns this season and is the team’s second-leading rusher.

San Diego State has had success defending the Falcons’ triple-option attack, going 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings in this series.  Like Air Force, the Aztecs possess a ball-control offense that runs the ball 66.7% of the time, which is one of the highest percentages for a non-triple-option offense.

The Aztecs rank 31st in Rushing Success Rate, fourth in rushing explosiveness and 41st in EPA/rush.  Running back Greg Bell is averaging 5.0 yards per rush attempt this season and could find daylight against an Air Force defense that is 128th in rushing explosiveness allowed.

Finally, San Diego State is 9-2 ATS as an underdog of fewer than eight points so take the Aztecs plus the number as Oskeim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, October 23.