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Oskeim’s Free Pick Winner: Purdue at Iowa

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Oskeim Sports provides a detailed betting preview and free pick winner in Saturday’s Big Ten Conference clash between Purdue and Iowa.  Be sure to check back daily for more free pick winners and quality betting advice from the #1 Ranked sports handicapping firm in the nation.  Also, Jeff offers daily game previews to give you an edge over the bookmaker.

The Hawkeyes enter off a thrilling 23-20 win over Penn State in which they trailed 17-3 before the Nittany Lions’ starting quarterback, Sean Clifford, went out with an injury. Iowa has been blessed with positive variance this season, ranking No. 1 in the nation in turnover margin (+15.0).

However, Iowa is ranked just 53rd in the country in yards per play margin and is playing for the seventh straight week.  The Hawkeyes 36.2% success rate (i.e. gaining at least 50% of needed yardage on first down, 70% on second or 100% on third/fourth) ranks 119th in the country, barely surpassing helpless Vanderbilt.  Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz is just 2-7-1 ATS as a conference favorite after defeating an undefeated opponent, including 0-4-1 ATS at home and 0-4-1 ATS versus .501 or greater opposition.

In contrast, Purdue arrives off a bye and is 18-6-2 ATS in its last 26 games as a road underdog and 14-5-2 ATS in its last 21 road affairs versus teams with a winning record. The Boilermakers are one of only ten teams in the nation that have outyarded every opponent they have faced this season and head coach Jeff Brohm is a profitable 20-9 ATS as an underdog, including 8-0 ATS following a loss.

The Boilermakers’ defense ranks fifth in success rate allowed and 10th in points allowed per drive.  Purdue owns the 8th ranked scoring defense (15.40), 15th ranked total defense (299.6), 14th ranked passing efficiency defense (108.92) and 26th ranked third-down conversion defense (.325).  Purdue is extremely well-coached, ranking 8th in the nation in fewest penalties per game (4.20).  The Boilermakers are 17th in kickoff return defense (16.29)

The past three Iowa-Purdue games have been decided by a combined 12 points and today’s game looks to be another very competitive affair.  The scheduling dynamics suggest a potential letdown for the Hawkeyes following last week’s come-from-behind victory and Purdue is well-rested and excels as an underdog.  Grab the points with the Boilermakers as Oskeim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, October 16.

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