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Oskeim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, November 4: Georgia State at Louisiana

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Oskeim Sports gives a detailed game preview and free pick winner in Thursday’s college football game between Georgia State and Louisiana-Lafayette.  Jeff is on a red-hot 64.3% winning run and is having another profitable football season.  Be sure to check back daily for more free pick winners from the #1 Ranked handicapping service in the industry!

This game has blowout written all over it as Louisiana has won seven straight games since its loss to Texas, including last week’s 45-0 blowout over Texas State. The Ragin’ Cajuns possess substantial advantages in almost every key statistical category, ranking 23rd in the nation in points per game margin, 44th in yards per game margin, and 50th in yards per play margin.

In contrast, Georgia State ranks 101st in points per game margin, 99th in yards per game margin, and 93rd in yards per play margin. Against three common opponents, Louisiana is +118 yards and +27 points per game, while the Panthers are -37 yards and -3 points per game.

The scheduling situation is very favorable for the Cajuns, who are playing their second of back-to-back home games, whereas the Panthers are traveling for the second straight game on a short week. Georgia State arrives off a misleading 21-14 win over Georgia Southern in which the Eagles had a 486-378 yards advantage but were minus-2 in turnover margin. The game was tied 14-14 in the final minute of the game when Georgia State scored the game-winning touchdown with just 26 seconds left.

The matchup strongly favors Louisiana’s powerful ground attack that ranks 1st in the country in EPA/Rush behind the best run-blocking offensive line in college football, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). The Cajuns also rank 12th in EPA/Play, 27th in passing success rate and 8th in Offensive Grade, per PFF.

The Cajuns should dominate the line of scrimmage against a Georgia State defense that is 76th in rushing success rate allowed and 61st in EPA per carry. Louisiana will also be able to move the chains through the air against a really bad Georgia State that ranks 102nd in coverage grade.

Georgia State’s offense is predicated on a very good rushing attack that ranks 33rd in EPA per carry. However, the Cajuns’ stout defense ranks 24th in success rate allowed and has been outstanding against the run. Specifically, Louisiana ranks 19th in run-defense grade and 5th in yards allowed before contact per attempt according to PFF.

The Panthers don’t pose a risk through the air, ranking 103rd in pass-offense grade and 112th in pass-blocking. Lay the points with Louisiana as Oskeim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, November 4.