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Oskeim provides a detailed betting preview and free pick winner in the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” between the Florida Gators and Georgia Bulldogs.
Georgia (-14.5) (-110) vs. Florida
Analysis: My math model only favors Georgia by 12.36 points in this game and the Gators apply to a very strong 29-6 ATS contrarian system of mine that invests on certain underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that have failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games versus opponents that have exceeded market expectations in 5 or six of their last seven games.
If the current line holds, Georgia will be favored by the most points in the history of the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” series. The most Georgia has been favored over Florida was 13 in 2017, when the Bulldogs won 42-7. The largest upset in the series occurred in 1997 when the Gators were a 20.5-point favorite and were soundly defeated 37-17 by Georgia.
The Gators are No. 7 in the nation in both yards per game margin (+163.3) and in yards per game margin (+2.0) but have been victimized by turnover variance (minus-7 turnover margin). Florida enters off a much-needed bye week (as does Georgia) and I have confidence in head coach Dan Mullens with extra time to prepare.
Mullens is a profitable 9-5-1 ATS as an underdog of more than six points versus undefeated opposition, including 7-1-1 ATS the last nine games. Mullens is 6-1 ATS with extra rest following a straight-up loss, while the Gators are 17-8 SU and 15-9-1 ATS in this series when Georgia arrives off a win by 20 or fewer points, including 5-1-1 ATS as underdogs.
Grab the points with Florida as Oskeim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, October 30.