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Oskeim’s Free Pick Winner: Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders

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Oskeim Sports gives a detailed betting preview and free pick winner in Sunday’s NFL game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Las Vegas Raiders.  Be sure to check back daily for more free pick winners from the #1 Ranked Handicapping Service in the industry.

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Home field advantage is virtually non-existent in the NFL (worth 1.5 points for most teams) as home teams have posted the following records in September & October affairs:

2021: 37-54 ATS (40.7%)
2020: 47-59 ATS (44.3%)
2019: 45-72-2 ATS (38.5%)

Over the last three NFL seasons (September/October games only), home teams have posted a combined record of 129-185-2 ATS record, which is a 41.1% win rate. My math model favors Las Vegas by less than three points in this game so the betting market continues to overvalue home-field advantage.

The line also fails to take into account the disparity in the team’s respective strengths of schedule.  Philadelphia has played one of the most difficult schedules in the league, including games against the 49ers, Cowboys, Chiefs, Panthers, and Buccaneers. According to the NFL’s strength of schedule, the Eagles have faced the fourth-hardest, whereas the Raiders have played the 18th-hardest schedule to date.

NFL road underdogs of 2.5 to 6.5 points in games with a total of 50 points or less are a profitable 243-150-12 ATS (61.8%) if they won six or fewer games the previous season. The Eagles enter with extended rest following their 28-22 loss to Tampa Bay last Thursday and the underdog has covered the spread in every Raiders’ game this season. Let’s also note that the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, while the underdog has covered four straight between these teams.

Philadelphia welcomes back starting right tackle Lane Johnson, who missed the last three games. Johnson is conceding a 4.3% pressure rate and is joined on the offensive line by left tackle Jordon Mailata, who is ranked 6th among 79 qualified tackles according to the metrics used by Pro Football Focus (PFF).

Guards Isaac Seumalo and Jack Driscoll are both ranked in the top 20 (among 74 qualified guards) in PFF’s metrics and all three anchor a Philadelphia ground attack that ranks No. 1 in Explosive Run Percentage.  The Eagles should have success moving the chains on the ground against a Las Vegas rush defense that ranks 27th in Explosive Run Percentage.

Las Vegas is 22nd in offensive DVOA (per Football Outsiders), 19th in EPA/play, 24th in Success Rate and 24th in Early Down Success Rate.  The Raiders’ offense relies heavily on explosive plays.  Indeed, Derek Carr has the second-most completions of at least 20 air yards.  However, the Eagles’ stop unit allows the fewest air yards per attempt in the NFL under new defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon.

Philadelphia cornerbacks Darius Slay, Steven Nelson and Avonte Maddox are the only three cornerbacks in the league to record a coverage snap on defense, and the trio has earned the highest PFF coverage grade in the NFL (78.7) as a unit.

Philadelphia’s defense ranks fourth in ESPN’s pass rush win rate (52%), which is significant in that Carr’s passer rating drops from 108.1 in a clean pocket to 72.7 when under duress.  Let’s also note that the Eagles’ secondary is allowing an average depth of target (aDOT) of just 6.6 yards, which is the fifth-fewest in the NFL.

Grab the points with Philadelphia as Oskeim’s Free Pick Winner for Sunday, October 24.