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Oskeim’s Free Pick Winner for Sunday, November 7: Chargers at Eagles

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Oskeim Sports gives a detailed betting preview and free sports pick in Sunday’s NFL game between the Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles. Be sure to check back daily for more free pick winners from the #1 Ranked handicapping service in the nation.

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My math model actually favors Philadelphia in this game and the Chargers are a money-burning 4-10-1 ATS in their last fifteen games versus .499 or worse opposition and 0-7 ATS in their last seven November affairs. In contrast, Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as a home underdog and 5-1 ATS in its previous Week 9 affairs.

Philadelphia finally dedicated itself to the ground game in last week’s 44-6 win over the Lions. The Eagles ran for 236 yards and four touchdowns and are primed to duplicate that success against a Los Angeles defense that has allowed the most rushing yards per game (132) and the third-most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs in 2021. The Chargers rank second-to-last in run-defense grade (38.6), per Pro Football Focus, and allow the second-most yards before contact per rushing attempt (1.9).

Let’s not forget that Los Angeles allowed Damien Harris to turn 23 rushing attempts into 80 yards and a touchdown last week. Philadelphia running back Boston Scott has a favorable matchup and finished with thirteen carries, two touchdowns (before garbage time) and a 56% routes run per dropback rate in last week’s victory over Detroit.  Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts has 12 straight games with 30 or more rushing yards, tied for the second-longest such streak by a quarterback over the past 20 seasons, and gives the Eagles another weapon on the ground.

The Chargers opened as three-point road favorites before professional money flooded the betting market in favor of the Eagles.  It’s the fifth consecutive week that respected money, most coming from professional betting groups, has backed Philadelphia.  NFL underdogs of six points or less with a line move in their favor are a profitable 58-37 ATS (61.1%) over the last two seasons.  Today’s lead referee, Jerome Boger, has been a 55.2% ATS winning proposition for home teams in his career.

This game also has the potential to land over the posted total.  The Chargers rank second in the league in situation-neutral pace, while the Eagles rank fifth in the same category.  Take the Philadelphia Eagles as Oskeim’s Free Pick Winner for Sunday, November 7.