Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Wednesday, August 13! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Wednesday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers (-198)
Probable Starters: Pirates: Mitch Keller (5-10, 3.86 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 107 strikeouts); Brewers: Brandon Woodruff (4-0, 2.29 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, 45 strikeouts)
Report: Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same or better record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2553-1025 SU (71.4%; +1.2% ROI) and 1663-1397 RL (+1.4% ROI) from Game 40 out, including 982-365 SU (72.9%; +2.2% ROI) and 745-601 RL (55.3%; +1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game. Since 2005, MLB home favorites of -130 or greater in afternoon games with totals of less than eight runs are 1038-582 SU (64.1%; +2.3%) versus league opponents. Since 2003, divisional home favorites of greater than -130 coming off back-to-back wins are 758-428 SU (63.9%; +1% ROI) and 473-520 RL (+3.3% ROI) in Games 45 to 120, including 259-126 SU (67.3%; +4.5% ROI) and 196-189 RL (+6.2% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average margin of +1.6 runs per game. The Brewers are 19-1 SU (95%; +59.2% ROI) and 10-10 RL (+8.1% ROI) since June 28, 2021, as divisional favorites following a shutout win, winning by an average margin of +2.6 runs per game. Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2939-5203 SU (36.1%; -4.0% ROI) and 4172-3551 RL (-2.7% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 927-1790 SU (34.1%; -7.3% ROI) and 1374-1339 RL (-6.0% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game.
Since 2002, MLB road underdogs of +175 or greater are 905-2198 SU (29.2%; -10.3% ROI) and 1263-1457 RL (-6.2% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 328-889 SU (27.0%; -15.6% ROI) and 534-683 RL (-9.8% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -2.0 runs per game. Finally, the Pirates are coming off four consecutive losses, which is notable in that .490 or worse road underdogs of +142 or greater coming off two or more consecutive losses are 1293-2611 SU (33.1%; -8.1% ROI) and 1726-1572 RL (-2.7% ROI), including 404-843 SU (32.4%; -7.3% ROI) and 630-617 RL (-2.7% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average margin of -1.5 runs per game. Take Milwaukee and invest with confidence.
Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) (-105)
Probable Starters: Rockies: Austin Gomber (0-6, 6.52 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 30 strikeouts); Cardinals: Michael McGreevy (4-2, 4.40 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 26 strikeouts)
Report: The fact that the Cardinals are large favorites is good news for the home squad as MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2664-1011 SU (72.5%; +2.2% ROI) and 1976-1492 RL (57%; +2.8% ROI) since 2007, including 1532-537 SU (74.0%; +3.6% ROI) and 1210-860 RL (58.5%; +2.8% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. Similarly, large MLB favorites in games with totals of greater than eight runs are 2310-907 SU (71.8%; +2.7% ROI) and 1816-1393 RL (56.6%; +2.9% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.1 runs per game. Since 2003, large MLB home favorites with immediate revenge are 835-337 SU (71.2%; +5.4% ROI) and 540-469 RL (+6.4% ROI) in early afternoon affairs, winning by an average margin of +1.7 runs per game. Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same or better record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2553-1025 SU (71.4%; +1.2% ROI) and 1663-1397 RL (+1.4% ROI) from Game 40 out, including 982-365 SU (72.9%; +2.2% ROI) and 745-601 RL (55.3%; +1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game.
Finally, since 2014, MLB favorites coming off a shutout loss are 885-611 SU (59.2%; +1% ROI), including 557-369 SU (60.2%; +1.2% ROI) since 2018. This situation improves to 217-97 SU (69.1%; +1.6% ROI) and 160-150 RL (+2.1% ROI) in games involving home favorites of -180 or greater, winning by an average margin of +1.6 runs per game.
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