Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Wednesday, May 28! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Wednesday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Chicago White Sox at New York Mets (-1.5)
Report: Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same or better record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2497-1004 SU (71.3%; +1.2% ROI) and 1624-1359 RL (+1.6% ROI) from Game 40 out, including 926-344 SU (72.9%; +2.2% ROI) and 706-563 RL (55.6%; +1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game. The White Sox are coming off three consecutive losses, which is noteworthy in that .490 or worse road underdogs of +142 or greater coming off two or more consecutive losses are 1276-2577 SU (33.1%; -8.2% ROI) and 1699-1548 RL (-2.8% ROI), including 387-809 SU (32.4%; -7.4% ROI) and 603-593 RL (-3.0% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average margin of -1.6 runs per game. Chicago right-hander Shane Smith allowed three runs over 5.0 innings of work in his last outing, which is noteworthy in that large MLB underdogs are 350-1110 SU (24%; -19.8% ROI) and 549-823 RL (40%; -12.3% ROI) with starting pitchers coming off a non-quality start, losing by an average of -2.4 runs per game.
Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2867-5116 SU (35.9%; -4.4% ROI) and 4074-3490 RL (-2.9% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 855-1703 SU (33.4%; -8.9% ROI) and 1276-1278 RL (-7.2% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game. Finally, since 2002, MLB road underdogs of +175 or greater are 886-2167 SU (29%; -10.7% ROI) and 1236-1434 RL (-6.5% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 309-858 SU (26.5%; -16.9% ROI) and 507-660 RL (-10.6% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -2.1 runs per game.
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
Report: The fact that the Cubs are large favorites is good news for the home squad as MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2597-983 SU (72.5%; +2.3% ROI) and 1922-1451 RL (57%; +2.8% ROI) since 2007, including 1465-509 SU (74.2%; +3.8% ROI) and 1156-819 RL (58.5%; +2.8% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same or better record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2497-1004 SU (71.3%; +1.2% ROI) and 1624-1359 RL (+1.6% ROI) from Game 40 out, including 926-344 SU (72.9%; +2.2% ROI) and 706-563 RL (55.6%; +1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game. The Rockies are coming off four consecutive losses, which is noteworthy in that .490 or worse road underdogs of +142 or greater coming off two or more consecutive losses are 1276-2577 SU (33.1%; -8.2% ROI) and 1699-1548 RL (-2.8% ROI), including 387-809 SU (32.4%; -7.4% ROI) and 603-593 RL (-3.0% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average margin of -1.6 runs per game.
Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2867-5116 SU (35.9%; -4.4% ROI) and 4074-3490 RL (-2.9% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 855-1703 SU (33.4%; -8.9% ROI) and 1276-1278 RL (-7.2% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game. Finally, since 2002, MLB road underdogs of +175 or greater are 886-2167 SU (29%; -10.7% ROI) and 1236-1434 RL (-6.5% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 309-858 SU (26.5%; -16.9% ROI) and 507-660 RL (-10.6% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -2.1 runs per game.
Florida Panthers (-125) at Carolina Hurricanes
Report: NHL playoff road favorites have performed well historically, going 241-156 (60.7%; +5.8% ROI) since 2003. Teams coming off a loss as home favorites have also performed well in postseason play, going 266-204 (56.6%; +6.1% ROI) since 2009, including 99-58 (63.1%; +12.4% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average margin of +0.7 goals per game. Since 2003, conference road favorites of less than -250 are 3017-2007 (60.1%; +3.3% ROI). Since 2007, .401 or greater road favorites are 2519-1703 (59.7%; +3.6% ROI) versus .401 or greater opponents. Since 2003, NHL playoff road favorites of less than -200 are 1009-596 (62.9%; +10.2% ROI) with same-season revenge, including 114-62 (64.8%; +13.8% ROI) in postseason play. This situation improves to 656-363 (64.4%; +12.4% ROI) with teams avenging an upset home loss. Since 2003, NHL favorites are 775-513 (60.2%; +5.4% ROI) versus rested underdogs of less than +150 entering off a win as underdogs that went under the total, including 69-43 (61.6%; +6.2% ROI) in postseason play, winning by an average margin of +0.5 goals per game.
Since 2003, NHL playoff teams coming off a shutout loss are 124-84 (59.6%; +17.5% ROI), including 60-35 (63.2%; +26% ROI) since 2015. Finally, NHL playoff road favorites of -180 or less coming off a loss are 101-55 (64.7%; +13.9% ROI) versus opponents entering off a win.
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