Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Wednesday, February 21! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Wednesday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Illinois at Penn State (+7.5) (-110)
Report: Since 2005, .416 or greater conference home underdogs of less than ten points are 352-253-15 ATS (58.2%) versus opponents that are not ranked in the top 8 nationally, including 140-93-5 ATS (60.1%) since 2019, covering the spread by an average of +2.24 points per game. Since 2019, unranked home underdogs are 341-283-9 ATS (55%) versus ranked opponents in games with totals of 135 or more points. Since 2005, college basketball teams coming off one or more consecutive wins in which they scored fewer than 50 points are 153-125-5 ATS (55%) versus .521 or greater opponents entering off a game in which they scored 80 or more points.
Finally, .416 or greater Big Ten Conference home underdogs of less than ten points are 58-35-3 ATS (62.4%) versus opponents that are not ranked inside the top 9, including 41-22-3 ATS (65.1%) since 2015, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.0 points per game.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-189) at Arizona Coyotes
Report: Since 2003, NHL road favorites with fewer than three days of rest are 2003-1273 (61.1%; +3.7% ROI) with a road game on deck, including 452-261 (63.4%; +2.5% ROI) since 2021, winning by an average margin of +0.8 goals per game. Since 2005, NHL road favorites coming off a win with a game the next day are 582-385 (60.2%; +4.3% ROI), including 165-83 (66.5%; +10.1% ROI) since 2020. Since 2008, NHL road favorites coming off a game as favorites are 713-415 (63.2%; +8.7% ROI) versus .401 or greater opposition from Game 24 out provided they have a road game on deck. Since 2004, NHL favorites allowing three or more goals per game are 457-304 (60.1%; +1.4% ROI) coming off two or more consecutive games in which they allowed two goals or fewer, including 143-80 (64.1%; +4.5% ROI) since 2021.
Finally, since 2007, .401 or greater road favorites are 2244-1479 (60.3%; +5.1% ROI) versus .401 or greater opponents.
South Florida (-5.5) (-110) at UTSA
Report: Since 2014, college basketball favorites of -21 or less coming off ten or more consecutive wins are 266-44 SU (85.8%) and 172-131-7 ATS (56.8%) versus opponents entering off one or more consecutive losses, winning by an average margin of +11.95 points per game. Since 2020, college basketball teams coming off two or more consecutive home wins, excluding home underdogs, are 292-231-10 ATS (55.8%) versus opponents that scored 75 points or more in two or more straight games, including 249-193-8 ATS (56.3%) since the beginning of the 2022-23 season.
Since 2005, college basketball home underdogs of +4 to +8.5 points coming off three consecutive conference losses are just 163-235 ATS (41%) with same-season conference revenge, losing by an average margin of -7.9 points per game. This situation contains a very negative 58-88-3 ATS (39.7%) subset angle that dates to 2008 and is 2-10-1 ATS since February 15, 2023.
Philadelphia Flyers (-182) at Chicago Blackhawks
Report: Since 2008, NHL road favorites with more rest than their opponent are 438-247 (63.9%; +6.5% ROI) versus opponents coming off a loss, including 141-60 (70.1%; +10.2% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average of +1.06 goals per game. Since 2010, non-division road favorites with more rest than their opponent are 448-254 (63.8%; +7.6% ROI). Since 2003, non-conference road favorites of -190 or less that missed the playoffs the previous season are 148-89 (62.4%; +9.0% ROI) versus opponents that also missed the playoffs the prior season, including 96-54 (64%; +12% ROI) since 2016.
Finally, since 2003, NHL road favorites coming off back-to-back road games with the last one consisting of an overtime loss are 67-33 (67%; +13.4% ROI) if they scored five or more goals combined in their previous two games, including 23-4 (85.2%; +37.9% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average of +1.9 goals per game.
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