Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Tuesday, July 29! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Tuesday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Texas Rangers (-225) at Los Angeles Angels
Report: Since 2009, large MLB favorites in games with totals of greater than eight runs are 2296-899 SU (71.9%; +2.8% ROI) and 1804-1383 RL (56.6%; +2.9% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.1 runs per game. Since 2005, MLB favorites of -191 or greater in the first game of a series are 1490-631 SU (70.2%; +1.0% ROI) and 1075-869 RL (55.3%; +3.1% ROI), including 788-316 SU (71.4%; +2.0% ROI) and 629-473 RL (57.1%; +3.7% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game. Since 2006, MLB road favorites of -200 or greater are 775-328 SU (70.3%; +2.0% ROI) and 623-433 RL (59%; +2.1% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. Texas southpaw Patrick Corbin enters off an outing in which he allowed one run on five hits in 5.2 innings of work (7/0 K/BB ratio), which is noteworthy in that MLB favorites of -196 or greater with starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.08 or better with revenge are 636-244 SU (72.3%; +3.6% ROI) and 458-359 RL (56.1%; +3.9% ROI), including 336-118 SU (74.0%; +5.5% ROI) and 256-197 RL (56.5%; +2.1% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.2 runs per game.
Finally, since 2013, divisional road favorites of -160 or greater are 529-240 SU (68.8%; +4.7% ROI) and 426-341 RL (55.5%; +2.3% ROI) versus opponents with revenge, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game.
Colorado Rockies at Cleveland Guardians (-285)
Report: The fact that the Guardians are large favorites is good news for the home squad as MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2653-1004 SU (72.6%; +2.4% ROI) and 1967-1480 RL (57.1%; +2.9% ROI) since 2007, including 1521-527 SU (74.3%; +3.9% ROI) and 1201-848 RL (58.6%; +3.0% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. Similarly, large MLB favorites in games with totals of greater than eight runs are 2296-901 SU (71.9%; +2.7% ROI) and 1804-1385 RL (56.6%; +2.8% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.1 runs per game. Since 2003, large MLB home favorites with immediate revenge are 830-334 SU (71.3%; +5.5% ROI) and 535-466 RL (+6.2% ROI) in early afternoon affairs, winning by an average margin of +1.7 runs per game. The Guardians are coming off an 8-6 loss to the Rockies on Monday night in which the Rockies scored four times in the ninth inning, which is significant in that non-division MLB home teams entering off a loss as large favorites are 40-13 SU (75.5%; +5.3% ROI) in Game 2 of a series, winning by an average margin of +1.8 runs per game.
Finally, the Rockies are just 80-142 SU (36%; -14.5% ROI) and 114-108 RL (-8.9% ROI) since 2010, on the road following a game as underdogs in which they scored six or more runs, including 22-53 SU (29.3%; -23.6% ROI) and 36-39 RL (-12.7% ROI) since 2021, losing by an average of -2.1 runs per game.
Washington Nationals at Houston Astros (-255)
Report: Since 2005, MLB favorites of -191 or greater in the first game of a series are 1490-631 SU (70.2%; +1.0% ROI) and 1075-869 RL (55.3%; +3.1% ROI), including 788-316 SU (71.4%; +2.0% ROI) and 629-473 RL (57.1%; +3.7% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game. Since 2003, MLB home favorites of -145 or greater coming off a game in which they scored one or fewer runs are 572-281 SU (67.1%; +4.7% ROI) and 369-369 RL (+8.6% ROI) in the first game of a series, including 204-94 SU (68.5%; +5.0% ROI) and 158-138 RL (+11.0% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +1.6 runs per game. Since 2003, MLB home favorites of -210 to -275 coming off two or more consecutive losses are 367-128 SU (74.1%; +6.2% ROI) and 232-184 RL (55.8%; +6.2% ROI) since 2003, winning by an average of +2.1 runs per game. Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2923-5189 SU (36%; -4.1% ROI) and 4154-3539 RL (-2.7% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 911-1776 SU (33.9%; -7.8% ROI) and 1356-1327 RL (-6.2% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game.
Finally, since 2002, MLB road underdogs of +175 or greater are 902-2197 SU (29.1%; -10.4% ROI) and 1259-1457 RL (-6.3% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 325-888 SU (26.8%; -16.0% ROI) and 530-683 RL (-10.1% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -2.0 runs per game.
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