Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Tuesday, July 22! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Tuesday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Dodgers (-220)
Starting Pitchers: Twins: Simeon Woods Richardson (5-4, 3.95 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 62 strikeouts); Dodgers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (8-7, 2.59 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 116 strikeouts)
Report: The fact that the Dodgers are large favorites is good news for the home squad as MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2648-998 SU (72.6%; +2.4% ROI) and 1964-1475 RL (57.1%; +3.0% ROI) since 2007, including 1516-524 SU (74.3%; +4.0% ROI) and 1198-843 RL (58.7%; +3.1% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. Similarly, large MLB favorites in games with totals of greater than eight runs are 2292-896 SU (71.9%; +2.8% ROI) and 1801-1379 RL (56.6%; +3.0% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.1 runs per game. Los Angeles falls into a very strong 1617-678 SU (70.5%; +2.2% ROI) and 1009-902 RL (+2.6% ROI) Home Favorite Run Differential System of mine that dates to 2004 and has won by an average of +1.8 runs per game. The Dodgers also apply to a profitable 172-71 SU (70.8%; +5.2% ROI) system that dates to 2004 and invests on Game 2 non-divisional home favorites of -179 to -259 entering off a win as home favorites in games with totals of 8 to 9.5 runs. This situation is 80-29 SU (73.4%; +9% ROI) and 57-52 RL (+1.2% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +1.6 runs per game.
Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2916-5182 SU (36%; -4.2% ROI) and 4146-3533 RL (-2.7% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 903-1769 SU (33.8%; -8.0% ROI) and 1346-1322 RL (-6.3% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game. Finally, since 2002, MLB road underdogs of +175 or greater are 901-2195 SU (29.1%; -10.4% ROI) and 1258-1456 RL (-6.3% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 324-886 SU (26.8%; -16.1% ROI) and 528-682 RL (-10.2% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -2.0 runs per game.
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers (-224)
Starting Pitchers: Athletics: J.T. Ginn (1-2, 4.91 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 41 strikeouts); Rangers: Jacob deGrom (9-2, 2.32 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 113 strikeouts)
Report: Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same or better record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2540-1019 SU (71.4%; +1.2% ROI) and 1653-1389 RL (+1.4% ROI) from Game 40 out, including 969-358 SU (73%; +2.3% ROI) and 736-590 RL (55.5%; +1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game. The Athletics are coming off back-to-back losses, which is noteworthy in that .490 or worse road underdogs of +142 or greater coming off two or more consecutive losses are 1289-2600 SU (33.1%; -8.1% ROI) and 1718-1565 RL (-2.7% ROI), including 398-831 SU (32.4%; -7.3% ROI) and 620-609 RL (-2.9% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average margin of -1.5 runs per game. Oakland right-hander J.T. Ginn is coming off a non-quality start, which is notable in that large MLB underdogs are 355-1138 SU (23.8%; -20.4% ROI) and 558-847 RL (39.7%; -13.0% ROI) with starting pitchers coming off a non-quality start, losing by an average of -2.4 runs per game.
Finally, the Athletics are 93-211 SU (30.6%; -10% ROI) and 140-164 RL (-8.3% ROI) since 2014, as underdogs of greater than +160, losing by an average of -2.0 runs per game.
Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Tuesday, July 22
- Since 2003, large MLB home favorites coming off two or more consecutive losses are 365-128 SU (74%; +6% ROI) and 231-183 RL (55.8%; +5.7% ROI), including 121-38 SU (76.1%; +8.6% ROI) and 87-71 RL (55.1%; +3.2% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average margin of +2.1 runs per game.
- The Royals are 18-48 SU (27.3%; -27.9% ROI) since August 12, 2022, as underdogs of +130 or greater coming off a win and 10-32 SU (23.8%; -45% ROI) since May 9, 2018, as road underdogs entering off a road win by five or more runs.
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