Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Tuesday, April 22! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Tuesday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder (-14.5) (-110)
Report: Since 1989, NBA playoff teams that won outright or lost by less than two points in the previous meeting are 133-86-1 ATS (60.7%) in games with totals of greater than 224 points, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.9 points per game. Since 2005, NBA playoff favorites of greater than two points are 257-192-4 ATS (57.2%) versus opponents entering off a road game that have a road game on deck, including 64-30-2 ATS (68.1%) since 2020, covering the spread by an average of +3.1 points per game. Since 1998, NBA playoff teams averaging at least 227.16 points per game are 91-58 ATS (61.1%) if they are played at the same site in their previous game. Since 1998, NBA playoff favorites of nine points or greater with seven or more wins than their opponent are 139-81-3 ATS (63.2%), including 64-35-2 ATS (64.6%) since 2015. The Thunder are 92-44-3 ATS (67.6%) since 2018, coming off a game in which they had 26 or more assists, provided they’re not entering off a loss. The Thunder are 25-4-1 ATS (86.2%) since 2021, following a game in which they had 54 or more rebounds, covering the spread by an average of +6.8 points per game.
Since 2001, NBA playoff teams with a line that is eight or more points higher than their average line during the regular season are 384-496-7 ATS (43.6%), including 119-161-3 ATS (42.5%) since 2017. Finally, since 2013, NBA playoff home favorites entering off a win are 58-45-2 ATS (56.3%) in Game 2 of a series, including 23-14-1 ATS (62.2%) since 2020.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (-1.5) (-115)
Report: Since 2006, MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2545-967 SU (72.5%; +2.2% ROI) and 1884-1421 RL (57%; +2.9% ROI), including 1413-493 SU (74.1%; +3.8% ROI) and 1118-789 RL (58.6%; +3.0% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. Since 2002, large home favorites early in the season are 376-130 SU (74.3%; +7.7% ROI), winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game. Since 2005, MLB favorites of -191 or greater in the first game of a series are 1438-608 SU (70.3%; +1% ROI) and 1035-834 RL (55.4%; +3.2% ROI), including 736-293 SU (71.5%; +2.1% ROI) and 589-438 RL (57.4%; +4.1% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.1 runs per game. Minnesota applies to a very good 1584-660 SU (70.6%; +2.4% ROI) and 987-873 RL (+3.1% ROI) Home Favorite Run Differential System of mine that is 602-229 SU (72.4%; +4.8% ROI) and 458-369 RL (55.4%; +5.0% ROI) since 2017, winning by an average margin of +2.1 runs per game.
Finally, since 2009, divisional home favorites of greater than -150 coming off a loss are 1274-643 SU (66.5%; +1.6% ROI) and 937-978 RL (+3.0% ROI), including 378-164 SU (69.7%; +5.0% ROI) and 288-254 RL (+7.8% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average margin of +1.8 runs per game.
Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers (-4) (-110)
Report: Since 1989, NBA playoff teams that won outright or lost by less than two points in the previous meeting are 133-86-1 ATS (60.7%) in games with totals of greater than 224 points, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.9 points per game. Since 2005, NBA playoff favorites of greater than two points are 257-192-4 ATS (57.2%) versus opponents entering off a road game that have a road game on deck, including 64-30-2 ATS (68.1%) since 2020, covering the spread by an average of +3.1 points per game. Since 1996, NBA playoff favorites of -2 to -10 in Game 2 of an opening round series are 84-55 ATS (60.4%), including 23-8 ATS (74.2%) since 2019, covering by an average of +4.7 points per game. Since 2013, NBA playoff home favorites entering off a win are 58-45-2 ATS (56.3%) in Game 2 of a series, including 23-14-1 ATS (62.2%) since 2020. Since 1998, NBA playoff teams averaging at least 227.16 points per game are 91-58 ATS (61.1%) if they are played at the same site in their previous game.
Finally, since 1998, NBA playoff favorites in games where the total is at least two points higher than it was in their last game are 220-163-4 ATS (57.4%), including 56-39 ATS (58.9%) since 2018.
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