Oskeim’s Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Tuesday, 2/27

Feb 27, 2024

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Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Tuesday, February 27!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Tuesday’s games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

Tampa Bay Lightning (-131) at Philadelphia Flyers

Report: Since 2003, NHL favorites averaging three or more goals allowed per game are 460-305 (60.1%; +2% ROI) following two or more consecutive games in which they allowed two goals or fewer, including 146-81 (64.3%; +4.8% ROI) since 2021. Since 2010, NHL road favorites of -120 to -200 that are not coming off an overtime game in their last two games are 493-279 (63.9%; +7.5% ROI) from Game 50 out. Since 2003, Eastern Conference road teams priced between -100 and -199 are 364-232 (61.1%; +8.2% ROI) coming off a win that went under the total, including 70-33 (68%; +16.8% ROI) since 2019 and 67-25 (72.8%; +24.6% ROI) since 2020.

Since 2007, .401 or greater road favorites are 2250-1487 (60.2%; +5% ROI) versus .401 or greater opponents. Finally, the Lightning are 208-109 (65.6%; +3.6% ROI) since December 23, 2019, winning by an average of +0.9 goals per game.

San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 225.5 points (-110)

Report: Since 1999, NBA home favorites of 6.5 or more points in games with totals of at least 225 points are 551-466-28 to the Over (54.2%), covering the total by an average margin of +1.7 points per game. Since 1999, NBA home favorites of 9.5 or more points in games with totals of at least 225 points are 334-262-20 to the Over (56%), including 316-244-18 OVER (56.4%) since 2015, covering the total by an average of +2.3 points per game.

Since 1990, .499 or worse teams are 581-478 to the Over (55%) versus .550 or greater opponents in games with totals between 220 and 230 points. Since 2011, .451 or greater double-digit non-division favorites coming off a game in which they covered the spread are 309-243-22 to the Over (56%) versus opponents entering off a loss, including 135-74-3 OVER (64.6%) since 2019, covering the total by an average of +5.23 points per game.

The foregoing situation contains a very good 276-204-20 (57.5%) NBA totals system of mine that dates to 2013 and is 110-62-3 OVER (64%) since 2020, covering the total by an average of +4.8 points per game. Finally, since 2019, NBA home favorites coming off a game that went under the total are 348-279-16 to the Over (55.5%) in games with totals of 222 to 231 points, including 179-136-12 OVER (56.8%) since 2013.

Carolina Hurricanes (-137) at Minnesota Wild

Report: Since 2003, NHL road favorites with fewer than three days of rest are 2010-1276 (61.2%; +3.8% ROI) with a road game on deck, including 459-264 (63.5%; +2.7% ROI) since 2021, winning by an average margin of +0.8 goals per game. Since 2003, NHL road favorites of -120 to -209 with revenge for a home loss are 604-326 (64.9%; +10.4% ROI). Since 2003, NHL road favorites of less than -200 with same-season revenge for a home upset loss are 538-279 (65.9%; +15.1% ROI), including 272-134 (67%; +16.7% ROI) since 2016, winning by an average of +0.8 goals per game.

Since 2005, NHL road favorites of -140 or greater are 675-341 (66.4%; +4.6 ROI) versus opponents entering off a win, including 397-189 (67.7%; +5.2% ROI) since 2016, winning by an average margin of +0.9 goals per game. Finally, since 2007, .401 or greater road favorites are 2250-1485 (60.2%; +5% ROI) versus .401 or greater opponents.

Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche (-131) 

Report: Since 2011, NHL favorites of -111 to -199 are 1366-840 (61.9%; +4.4% ROI) versus unrested opponents, including 320-159 (66.8%; +12.8% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average margin of +1.0 goals per game. This situation contains a very good 542-275 (66.3%; +11.9% ROI) subset angle involving games with totals of six or more goals. Since 2004, .450 or greater teams with two days of rest are 496-304 (62%; +3.4% ROI) versus unrested opponents, including 299-164 (64.6%; +1.4% ROI) as favorites with two or more days of rest versus opponents with revenge.

Since 2011, conference favorites with two or more days of rest are 354-192 (64.8%; +4% ROI) versus unrested opponents playing with revenge, including 121-51 (70.3%; +8.3% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.2 goals per game.  Since 2007, unrested teams coming off an overtime loss are 427-584 (42.2%; -9.6% ROI) provided they are not priced between -120 and -140, including 70-111 (38.7%; -18.3% ROI) since 2019. Finally, since 2003, NHL road teams playing their third game in four days are 1320-1725 (43.3%; -3.5% ROI).

Bonus Betting Trends for Tuesday, February 27

  • Since 2005, double-digit road favorites are 280-218-13 ATS (56.2%), including 154-106-5 ATS (59.2%) since 2017
  • Since 1999, NBA road favorites of nine or more points are 140-88-7 ATS (61.4%) after the All-Star break versus opponents with the same amount of rest, including 83-47-2 ATS (63.8%) since 2015
  • Since 2004, NBA road favorites coming off consecutive SU and ATS losses are 239-154-10 ATS (60.8%) if their most recent loss was as road favorites, including 121-64-4 ATS (65.4%) since 2016.

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