Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Thursday, April 17! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Thursday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs (-128)
Report: Since 2011, .501 or greater rested favorites are 1020-502 (67%; +4.7% ROI) versus unrested opponents, including 354-137 (72.1%; +8.0% ROI) since 2020. Since 2011, NHL favorites of less than -200 are 1479-912 SU (61.9%; +4.2% ROI) versus unrested opponents, including 433-231 SU (65.2%; +9.8% ROI) since 2020. Since 2004, .499 or worse unrested underdogs coming off a road game are 616-1160 (34.7%; -11.1% ROI), including 119-316 (27.4%; -24.1% ROI) since 2020. Since 2003, NHL underdogs coming off three or more consecutive wins are 852-1396 (37.9%; -12.4% ROI), including 146-282 (34.1%; -19.8% ROI) since 2021, losing by an average of -0.9 goals per game.
Since 2003, .599 or worse NHL underdogs entering off three or more consecutive wins are 566-984 (36.5%; -14.2% ROI), including 102-203 (33.4%; -19.3% ROI) since 2020, losing by an average of -1.0 goals per game. Finally, since 2003, unrested NHL underdogs coming off a road win in which they had fewer shots on goal are 56-123 (31.3%; -18.5% ROI), including 30-67 (30.9%; -16.7% ROI) since 2020, losing by an average of -1.1 goals per game.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-152) at Miami Marlins
Report: Since 2006, MLB road favorites of -140 to -190 in the first two months of the season are 730-448 SU (62%; +2% ROI) versus league opponents, including 340-188 SU (64.4%; +5.3% ROI) and 278-249 RL (+6.4% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +1.7 runs per game. Arizona starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez is 69-25 SU (73.4%; +23.6% ROI) and 57-38 RL (60%; +16.6% ROI) versus .500 or worse opponents in his career, including 10-2 SU (83.3%) in his last 12 outings under these circumstances. Rodriguez is 22-3 SU and 16-10 RL (61.5%; +19.4% ROI) as a favorite of -137 or more following a loss in his previous outing, winning by an average margin of +2.6 runs per game. Rodriguez is 16-8 SU (66.7%; +31.1% ROI) and 18-6 RL (75%; +33.4% ROI) since April 19, 2018, on the road following a quality start in his last outing, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game. Since 2017, MLB road favorites coming off a game that went under the total are 1102-826 SU (57.2%) if they had three or more walks in the contest.
Since 2009, MLB home underdogs coming off a game that went under the total in which both teams failed to score in the first inning are 1342-1950 SU (40.8%; -7.4% ROI) and 1727-1557 RL (-6.9% ROI), including 403-627 SU (39.1%; -8.9% ROI) and 530-500 RL (-7.7% ROI) since 2020, losing by an average of -1.3 runs per game.
Oakland Athletics (-155) at Chicago White Sox
Report: Since 2006, MLB road favorites of -140 to -190 in the first two months of the season are 730-448 SU (62%; +2% ROI) versus league opponents, including 340-188 SU (64.4%; +5.3% ROI) and 278-249 RL (+6.4% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +1.7 runs per game. Since 2008, American League home underdogs coming off back-to-back losses as underdogs are 338-556 SU (37.8%; -9.3% ROI), losing by an average of -1.4 runs per game. Since 2010, American League road favorites of -120 to -220 are 1394-936 SU (59.8%; +1.2% ROI) versus non-division opponents, including 629-410 SU (60.5%; +1.4% ROI) and 498-539 RL (+1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.3 runs per game. Since 2005, MLB home underdogs with totals between 7-8 runs coming off a game in which they had 11 hits or less are 1875-2568 SU (42.2%; -5% ROI), including 427-625 SU (40.6%; -7.6% ROI) and 566-486 RL (-4.8% ROI) since 2021, losing by an average of -1.1 runs per game. Since 2017, MLB road favorites coming off a game that went under the total are 1102-826 SU (57.2%) if they had three or more walks in the contest
Since 2009, MLB home underdogs coming off a game that went under the total in which both teams failed to score in the first inning are 1342-1950 SU (40.8%; -7.4% ROI) and 1727-1557 RL (-6.9% ROI), including 403-627 SU (39.1%; -8.9% ROI) and 530-500 RL (-7.7% ROI) since 2020, losing by an average of -1.3 runs per game. Finally, the White Sox are 225-306 SU (42.4%; -9.5% ROI) since 2013, in Game 3 of a series, including 79-116 (40.5%; -17.1% ROI) since 2021.
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