Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Thursday, February 15! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Thursday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Milwaukee Bucks (-11.5) (-110) at Memphis Grizzlies
Report: Since 2009, NBA road favorites of -5 or greater are 1501-1222-56 ATS (55.1%), including 643-516-26 ATS (55.5%) since 2018. This situation contains a profitable 500-364-21 ATS (57.9%) subset angle that is 61% ATS since 2015. Since 2007, NBA road teams with revenge coming off a home loss by 20 or more points are 170-132-3 ATS (56.3%), including 72-42 ATS (63.2%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average of +3.7 points per game. Since 2005, double-digit NBA road favorites are 280-216-13 ATS (56.5%), including 138-98-4 ATS (58.5%) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +13.31 points per game.
Finally, since 2006, NBA home underdogs of greater than four points coming off a game in which 200 or more points were scored are 770-1005-37 ATS (43.4%) versus .749 or worse opponents.
Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz OVER 238.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 2015, NBA teams with four or more days of rest before their next game are 231-183 to the Over (55.8%), including 120-74-3 OVER (61.9%) since 2020, covering the total by an average margin of +2.9 points per game. The over applies to a very good 52-35 (59.8%) NBA totals system of mine that dates to 1989 and invests on the over in certain games involving conference home teams priced between -3 and +3 coming off an ATS loss versus opponents coming off a game in which they failed to cover the spread. This situation is 50-32 OVER (61%) since 2015, covering the total by an average margin of +4.01 points per game.
Florida Panthers (-150) at Buffalo Sabres
Report: Since 2003, NHL road favorites with fewer than three days of rest are 1998-1270 (61.1%; +3.7% ROI) with a road game on deck, including 447-258 (63.4%; +2.6% ROI) since 2021, winning by an average margin of +0.8 goals per game. This situation contains a profitable 710-413 (63.2%; +8.7% ROI) subset angle that dates to 2008 and involves opponents with a .401 or greater win percentage. Since 2010, NHL road favorites of -120 to -200 that are not off overtime in their previous two games are 481-272 (63.9%; +7.5% ROI) from Game 50 out. Since 2004, unrested road favorites are 687-456 (60.1%; +2% ROI), including 195-121 (61.7%) since 2020, winning by an average of +0.7 goals per game.
Since 2004, unrested conference road favorites are 513-329 (60.9%; +3.1% ROI), including 149-77 (65.9%; +4.4% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average of +0.82 goals per game. Finally, since 2007, .401 or greater road favorites are 2234-1475 (60.2%; +5.1% ROI) versus .401 or greater opponents.
San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames (-320)
Report: Since 2003, NHL favorites averaging three or more goals per game coming off two or more consecutive games allowing two or fewer goals are 454-301 (60.1%; +2 ROI), including 140-77 (64.5%; +5.3% ROI) since 2021. Since 2004, .450 or greater teams with two days of rest are 492-302 (62%; +3.5% ROI) versus unrested opponents, including 297-162 (64.7%; +2% ROI) as favorites with two or more days of rest versus opponents with revenge. This situation is 95-41 (69.9%; +4% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average margin of +1.2 goals per game.
Since 2011, conference favorites with two or more days of rest are 352-191 (64.8%; +4% ROI) versus unrested opponents playing with revenge, including 119-50 (70.4%; +9% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.2 goals per game. Since 2004, NHL road underdogs of +200 or greater coming off a loss are 289-848 (25.4%; -11.4% ROI), including 94-305 (23.6%; -15.2% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.63 goals per game.
Since 2013, NHL road teams coming off a road game in which they were shutout are 204-280 (42.1%; -5.1% ROI), including 63-93 (40.4%; -9.2% ROI) since 2020. Finally, since 2003, NHL teams coming off a game as underdogs in which their opponent had twice the number of shots on goal are 299-401 (42.7%; -6.5% ROI), including 34-60 (36.2%; -13.7% ROI) since 2020.
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