Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report & Free Picks for Thursday, December 12! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers give bettors winning free picks on Thursday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 48.5 points (-110)
Report: Since 2002, NFL divisional games with totals of 45 or more points are 374-256 to the Under (59.4%) in Weeks 11 to 16. Since 1989, NFL primetime games featuring divisional opponents are 174-124-4 to the Under (58.4%) with totals of at least 45 points, including 26-14-2 UNDER (65%) since the beginning of the 2022-23 season, going under by an average margin of -2.1 points per game. Thursday Night Football divisional home favorites are 64-42 to the Under (60.4%). Since 1998, NFL teams coming off an upset win as underdogs are 145-116-8 to the Under (55.6%), including 32-21 UNDER (60.4%) since the beginning of the 2021-22 season. Since 2017, NFL teams coming off a game in which they allowed 40 or more points are 120-89-4 to the Under (57.4%). Since 1989, NFL games between teams that are both coming off contests in which they scored 35 or more points are 37-21-1 to the Under (63.8%) with totals of less than 49 points, including 66.7% UNDER since 2018, covering the total by an average of -4.8 points per game.
Since 2013, NFL teams averaging six or more yards per play are 453-350-23 to the Under (56.4%) from Week 5 forward. Finally, the 49ers are 16-2 to the Under (88.9%) since December 4, 2005, in competitively priced divisional home affairs, covering the total by an average of -6.5 points per game.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) (-110)
Report: Since 1999, .800 or worse favorites coming off a game in which they had 75 or more rushing yards are 193-107-6 ATS (64.3%) versus .300 or greater opponents, provided they have extended rest on deck. This situation is 94-39-3 ATS (70.7%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.8 points per game. Since 1989, Thursday Night Football favorites with three or fewer days of rest in games with totals of 33.5 to 52 points are 75-40-4 ATS (65.2%) versus opponents with the same amount of rest from Week 3 forward, including 40-18-1 ATS (69%) since 2016. Since 2001, NFL home favorites with a bye week on deck are 264-203-8 ATS (56.5%), including 107-74-4 ATS (2016) since 2016.
Finally, NFL road underdogs on short rest and coming off an upset win as underdogs are 45-67-2 ATS (40.2%) since 1990, including 14-27 ATS (34.1%) since 2016, falling short of market expectations by an average of -2.1 points per game.
Washington Capitals (-162) at Columbus Blue Jackets
Report: Since 2003, NHL conference road favorites of less than -250 are 2898-1900 (60.4%; +4% ROI). Since 2007, .401 or greater road favorites are 2380-1582 (60.1%; +4.6% ROI) versus .401 or greater opponents. Since 2004, .501 or greater road favorites of -150 or greater coming off a win are 507-222 (69.5%; +5.2% ROI) versus .499 or worse conference opponents, winning by an average of +1.0 goals per game. Since 2008, NHL road favorites with more rest are 461-257 (64.2%; +6.7% ROI) versus opponents coming off a loss, including 164-70 (70.1%; +10% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average of +1.1 goals per game. Since 2003, NHL road favorites averaging more than 3.1 goals per game on the road are 308-187 (62.2%; +2.7% ROI) versus opponents not on an extended homestand. Finally, NHL home underdogs coming off a loss are 236-367 (39.1%; -9.8% ROI) in Thursday affairs, including 66-125 (34.6%; -15.3% ROI) since 2020.
Florida Panthers (-157) at Vancouver Canucks
Report: Since 2003, NHL road favorites with fewer than three days of rest are 2120-1355 (61%; +3.3% ROI) with a road game on deck, including 569-343 (62.4%; +1.3% ROI) since 2021, winning by an average margin of +0.7 goals per game. Since 2007, .401 or greater road favorites are 2380-1582 (60.1%; +4.6% ROI) versus .401 or greater opponents. Since 2003, NHL road favorites of -120 to -209 with revenge for a home loss are 640-348 (64.8%; +10% ROI). Since 2003, NHL road favorites of less than -200 with same-season revenge for a home upset loss are 564-294 (65.7%; +14.8% ROI), including 298-149 (66.7%; +15.8% ROI) since 2016. Since 2008, NHL road favorites coming off a game as favorites with a road game on deck are 758-439 (63.3%; +8.8% ROI) versus .401 or greater opponents from Game 24 out. Since 2003, NHL favorites averaging three or more goals allowed per game are 497-329 (60.2%; +1.2% ROI) following two or more consecutive games in which they allowed two goals or fewer, including 183-105 (63.5%; +3.3% ROI) since 2021.
Finally, since 2010, NHL road favorites of -210 or less coming off back-to-back games that went under the total are 372-220 (62.8%; +8.8% ROI, including 95-53 (64.2%; +9.5% ROI) since 2020.
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